State level data for GDP in 2017Q4 were released today. This is an opportunity to update the progress of manufacturing value added (as opposed to employment) in Wisconsin after passage of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit (MAC).
Over 1100 Economists, 15 Nobel Laureates and Republican and Democratic CEA Members Agree
Don’t repeat the mistake of Smoot-Hawley tariffs.
Podcast on econometrics, oil shocks, and monetary policy
I had an interesting discussion on a range of topics with David Beckworth which you can
listen to as a podcast from Macro Musings.
Comparative Performance of the UK Economy
There was no recession after Brexit. But a slowdown looks like it’s here now…
Figure 1: Log real GDP for France (blue), UK (bold red), Germany (green), US (bold blackteal), and euro area (tealbold black), all normalized to 2016Q2. Source: OECD, BEA, author’s calculations.
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Six Pictures of the US Macroeconomy
As I prepped for final lectures in my macro policy course, I generated these graphs.
Nowcasting the US Economy:
Figure 1: Reported GDP (blue bars), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (red), NY Fed nowcast (green), and Macroeconomic Advisers (black), all in billions Ch.2009$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA 2018Q1 advance; Atlanta Fed (4/26), NY Fed (4/27), Macroeconomic Advisers (4/26).
A little slower growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s a modest slowdown from the 3.1% average we saw over the previous 3 quarters. 3.1% is also the average growth rate for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years. But the Q1 reading is pretty much on par with the 2.2% average growth since the Great Recession ended in 2009.
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Ready, Shoot, Aim: In the Foot Edition
In this post I showed the negative impact on some US allies from tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between gross value and value added. Here is another graphical depiction of how tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are — in part — tariffs on US value added…
Prognostications on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity
From WSJ op-ed via AEI:
The second factor [in the slow recovery] is less obvious, but possibly also of great importance…. Congress and [the] President signaled their intentions to introduce major changes in taxes, government spending and regulations–changes that could radically transform the American economy.
…
… other government proposals created greater uncertainty and risk for businesses and investors. …
Liberal Biased Uncertainty Index Elevated
Reader CoRev argues that economic uncertainty indicators such as the Baker, Bloom and Davis based on content analysis of newspaper articles are instances of GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). Here is a plot of another indicator suggesting current elevated uncertainty.
Figure 0: Measure of risk/uncertainty (red). Observation for April is data through 4/23.
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