Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Policy Uncertainty

High frequency through 3/2:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?

Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Reinversion Continues

End of week  spreads:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Outlook Darkening

From betting markets, economists:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Inflation Rising

Year-on-Year looks better.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Off a Cliff

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Egg Prices Keep on Rising

From Trading Economics today:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…[updated]

As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Betting on Measles

Sad news informs the revision to odds on measles cases this year:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend

For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
  • Agricultural Exports through August
  • Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
  • What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
  • An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress