The agreement arrived at on New Year’s day implies that output at the end of 2013 will be between 0.6 to 1.0 percentage points higher than it otherwise would be under what was until New Year’s, current law, according to CBO’s preferred multipliers. The uncertainty arises in part from the unresolved nature of the sequester deal.
QE3 and beyond
Now that we’ve closed the books on 2012, I thought it might be useful to take a look at where monetary policy has led us over the last four years.
The Year in Review II: Yet More Fantastical Pseudo Economics
Time to emulate the media’s “year in review” pieces, with my own take on the most outrageous, nonsensical assertions presented in the guise of analysis. Here are my ten most hilariously deluded excursions into the fantasy world from my postings to Econbrowser. The inspirations range from (once again) the Heritage Foundation’s analyses (where have you gone, Bill Beach!) to the ongoing search for hyperinflation/crowding out.
Metrics for the “Ever Expanding Government”
The latest in a series examining persistent macroeconomic myths [1]
Investment and the business cycle
I fell a little behind on blogging with the holidays, so today I’ll outsource to Calculated Risk.
Dragged to the Fiscal Slope
Implications of “I am not a member of an organized political party. I am a Republican.” (with apologies to Will Rogers)
Confusion in the Anti-Keynesian Ranks
Some people think that if one takes into account intertemporal dynamics, policy must necessarily be ineffective
Future production from U.S. shale or tight oil
I attended the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco two weeks ago at which I heard a very interesting presentation by David Hughes of the Post Carbon Institute. He is more pessimistic about future production potential from U.S. shale gas and tight oil formations than some other analysts. Here I report some of the data on tight oil production that led to his conclusion.
Guest Contribution: “An assessment of the US jobless recovery through a non-linear Okun’s law”
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West) and
and Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West and CEPII).
Heritage on Gun Control
From their website:
The wake of a violent tragedy is an appropriate time for reflection, investigation, prayer, and the promotion of healing. It is a particularly inappropriate time for political opportunism. …