The paperback edition of Lost Decades (W.W. Norton) is to be officially released October 1st. This seems as appropriate a juncture as any to assess the predictions Jeffry Frieden and I wrote almost two years ago.
Fat fingers and the price of oil
Can the wild swings in the price of oil over the last few weeks have anything to do with supply and demand?
Thresholds in the economic effects of oil prices
As U.S. retail gasoline prices once again near $4.00 a gallon, does this pose a threat to the economy and President Obama’s prospects for re-election? My answer is no.
Global Imbalances
Some observations on the difficult tasks of identifying and explaining such imbalances
Effects of QE3
On Thursday the Federal Reserve announced a series of measures that will come to be referred to as a third round of “quantitative easing,” or QE3. Here I review what effects this is intended to have and some of the developments so far.
Imperfect Information, Biased Reasoning, and the Energy Efficiency Gap
In a new working paper, David Austin argues that for a variety of reasons, private agents do not optimize with respect to energy efficiency measures. From Addressing Market Barriers to Energy Efficiency in Buildings:
Geopolitical unrest and key oil producers
Some people observed 9/11 by lighting candles, others by killing more Americans.
China’s Trade Surplus
The August numbers are in. From MarketWatch:
China posted a wider-than-expected trade surplus in August as imports unexpectedly contracted from the year-ago period, suggesting anemic domestic demand, according to data released Monday.
Influencing the internets
It seems UFollow’s algorithms decided I’m among the 100 most influential columnists and bloggers. Other econbloggers on their list included Paul Krugman, Felix Salmon, Ezra Klein, Yves Smith, and Bill McBride.
Woodford and QE3
Columbia University Professor Michael Woodford’s paper at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference last week made the case that more large-scale asset purchases by the Fed would by themselves do nothing, and suggested that instead what really matters is the Fed’s communication of its future intentions. There’s a fair bit in Woodford’s analysis that I agree with. But unlike Woodford, I think that asset purchases can be an important part of what the Fed could do in the here and now. Here I explain why.