The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% during the second quarter of 2011, and revised down its estimate of first-quarter growth to an even more anemic 0.4%. We knew the first half of the year was disappointing, but this is even weaker than most of us were anticipating.
Graphic of the Day: Who Borrowed? Who Loaned?
A picture says a thousand words. From the NYT today:
“Sex Ratios and Exchange Rates”
From a paper (Ungated/Scribed version here) by Shang-Jin Wei and Qingyuan Du:
China and several other economies in Asia are experiencing an increasingly more severe relative
surplus of men in the pre-marital age cohort. While the existing literature on the sex ratio has examined
its social impact such as crime, we aim to explore neglected implications of the sex ratio imbalance for
the real exchange rate. …
Relevant economics
University of Oregon economics professor Mark Thoma has an interesting article on the direction economics should be taking.
The Bonds of August
An Historical Analogy applied to today’s debt ceiling crisis, with apologies to Barbara Tuchman
More Data: Debt, and the Origins of Debt
I thought it of interest to see the evolution of Federal debt held by the public, and exactly what Administrations were the most spendthrift.
Data: Spending and Tax Receipts, 1967-2011
I keep on hearing we have a spending problem, but no revenue problem, from you know whom. I decided to appeal to actual data. Below is a time series plot of Federal current expenditures and tax receipts plus contributions to Federal social programs, as a share of GDP, over the 1967Q1-2011Q1 period. The data are based upon the data definitions in the BEA’s national income and product accounts (NIPA), as of June 2011. Outlays are declining, and as of 2011Q1 are at 0.25, which exceeds the previous peak, during the Reagan era, at 0.241 (1982Q4). Federal tax receipts plus social program contributions are at 0.158.
Effects of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases
Some Federal Reserve officials apparently have a rule of thumb for thinking about the impact of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases. I was curious to compare those estimates with the numbers that would come out of my own research.
DSGEs, Detrending, and Forecasting
With some implications for the debate over assessing fiscal and monetary policies
Reader Brian writes:
DSGE’s aren’t the answer to everything, but I still find the microfoundations, careful treatment of expectations, etc. still attractive and, in my opinion, the best we have at the moment.
Dividing integrals by integrals versus other calculation
With an application to accurately counting stimulus effects, for the benefit of the numerically challenged
Here I try to explain why dividing a number at a point in time by a cumulative number does not make sense (Warning: some understanding of calculus helpful). Reader Manfred defends the Weekly Standard’s calculation of dividing net jobs created at an instant in time by cumulative spending to obtain a dollars/job figure. Specifically: