By David Papell
Today, we’re fortunate to have <a
href=”http://www.uh.edu/~dpapell/”>David Papell, Professor of Economics at
the University of Houston, as a Guest
Contributor.
More on oil markets
Will high oil prices bring a new recession?
Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by an increase in oil prices. Does the recent surge in oil prices mean we should be looking for recession number 12?
Learning about Long Term Unemployment (I)
On Thursday, we brought together an impressive array of scholars to discuss the causes and consequences of, and policy responses to, long term unemployment, including Prakash Loungani, Advisor in the IMF’s Research Department, Kenneth Scheve, Professor of Political Science at Yale, Phillip Swagel, Professor of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, and a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Economic Policy, Rob Valletta, Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dan Aaronson, Director of Microeconomic Research at the Chicago Fed, and Kenneth Troske, Professor of Economics from the University of Kentucky. And that was in addition to the researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison (more on them below). For me, this was a tremendous learning experience. But like all good conferences, by the end I understood that I knew less than I thought I knew about long term unemployment. In today’s post, I will discuss the presentations and papers by Prakash Loungani and Rob Valletta; in the next post, I’ll cover the findings of Ken Scheve and Phillip Swagel and Ken Troske.
Economy still growing and still disappointing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.8% during the first quarter of 2011. Not exactly what the doctor ordered for a still very sick patient.
Deficit compromise
The Washington Post reported last week on a discouraging poll. Americans supposedly want to reduce the deficit, but not if it means changing Medicare, cutting programs like defense or Medicaid, or raising taxes on anybody but the very richest Americans. Democrats and Republicans seem farther than ever from finding agreement. It’s times like this that I’m glad there are some optimists around who still see some basis for making progress with America’s daunting fiscal challenge.
UW Conference on Long term unemployment in industrial countries
This Thursday, the La Follette School and the UW Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy is holding a conference on “Long term unemployment in industrial countries: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses”. In a timely report, the OECD last week released Persistence of High Unemployment: What Risks? What Policies?. From the report:
A Divergence of Opinion
As highlighted in Figure 1, estimates of GDP regarding 2011Q1 growth differ widely.
Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict
One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it’s not reassuring.