Professor Lazear on CNBC yesterday reiterates and unhedges his thesis that the causes of the 1980 and 1982 recessions are essentially the same as that of the 2007-09 recession.
Managing strategic petroleum reserves
The Wall Street Journal suggests today that part of the latest surge in China’s oil imports is attributable to a desire to boost the country’s oil stockpiles.
The Recovery Compared
Following up on my post The Recovery According to Ed “We are not in a recession” Lazear
, reader Rick Stryker writes:
Lazear’s points are clear: 1) Real growth has been sub-par in this recovery compared to previous recoveries…
This point is clearly falsified by the graphs from the St. Louis Fed:
NOAA: Warmest March on Record
And the first three months of 2012 were also the warmest first quarter in the contiguous United States, according to NOAA.
Current economic conditions
Friday’s jobs report was unquestionably a disappointment. But other recent U.S. economic indicators are more encouraging.
The Recovery According to Ed “We are not in a recession” Lazear
In Tuesday’s WSJ, Edward Lazear argued that we are now experiencing the “Worst Economic Recovery in History”. Before dissecting this remarkable document, it would behoove the reader to recall that while he was Chair of George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, he stated unequivocally in May 2008 (also in the pages of the WSJ):
Replacing Iran’s oil production
If an embargo is successful in preventing Iran from selling a significant amount of oil on the world market, what would replace it?
2012 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
Congratulations to the University of Kentucky for winning the 2012 U.S. college men’s basketball championship. Congratulations also to the 28% of those of you in our world famous Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge who successfully predicted that Kentucky would win. The high honors go to a reader with the moniker Heteroskedastic, who correctly anticipated that Kansas would be the team Kentucky would beat in the finals, as well as picking 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 8 standing. Thanks to all who participated, and try again next year!
Lessons from the Crisis for Teaching Macro
The NY Times “Room for Debate” recently had a forum on “Rethinking How We Teach Economics”, with contributions by Blinder, Taleb and Skidelsky, among others. In my contribution, I focused on the importance of asymmetric information and self-reinforcing feedback loops:
Okun’s Law, the Jobless Recovery, and Unexpectedly Fast Net Job Creation
I have found it somewhat surprising that analysts have worried about how employment growth has recently outpaced GDP, according to Okun’s Law, while others have bemoaned the slow pace of employment growth [0] [1]. Underpinning these discussions is a view that there is instability in the relationship. [2] The first thing to recall is that there are several versions of Okun’s Law. Some are expressed in levels, some in deviations from natural levels (gaps), and some in growth rates. From Figure 1, it does appear that private employment growth has been above expected, after being below expected.