The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee issued a statement today declaring that the bottom of the most recent recession was reached in June of 2009, with the economy in the expansion phase of the business cycle during the 15 months since then. This confirms the announcement issued by the Econbrowser Business Cycle Dating Committee last April.
What’s holding back employment growth?
I certainly agree that the most important factor holding back employment growth at the moment is low demand for firms’ products and services. But I disagree with those who suggest that this is the only factor.
Keep on Cooking Your Eggs and Washing Your Pre-Washed Spinach Thoroughly
Fortunately for me, I don’t like peanut butter. From NYT, on the Senate bill to expand FDA powers and increase funding:
The Yuan’s Course
The debate over the yuan’s value is heating up again. [Free Exchange/RA] [WSJ RTE/Talley] [WSJ RTE] Here is a plot of two relevant time series.
“Is the U.S. heading toward another recession?”
That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller. Charles Wheelan, of The Naked Economist, and I were the guests.
Links for 2010-09-15
Quick links on sources of job creation, recession probabilities, and alternative ways to access your favorite economic books.
Three Graphs Regarding EGTRRA/JGTRRA
If (1) one is a concerned about budget deficits over the longer term, but (2) is concerned that a reversion to pre-2001 tax rates would hurt short term growth, then one should favor the partial extension of EGTTRA/JGTRRA for only those earning less the $250K ($200K for singles).
The Global Economic Crisis
Impacts, Transmission and Recovery.
This was the topic of a conference I recently attended, sponsored by the Korean Development Institute and the East-West Center, organized by Maurice Obstfeld, Dongchul Cho, Andrew Mason and Sang Hyop Lee. It was a great opportunity to hear diverse views on the progress of the world economy. The papers are here.
Should the Fed try to depress long-term yields further?
I’ve been sharing with readers my recent research with Cynthia Wu, in which we found that the Fed could likely lower long-term interest rates further by buying more long-term securities, even though the short-term rate is essentially zero and even though the newly created reserves would simply sit idle in banks’ accounts with the Fed. Here I’d like to take up the question of whether such a policy would be desirable.
The “Ever-Expanding” Government Sector, Illustrated
Just some numbers to bring reality into the general discussion: