Fortunately for me, I don’t like peanut butter. From NYT, on the Senate bill to expand FDA powers and increase funding:
The Yuan’s Course
The debate over the yuan’s value is heating up again. [Free Exchange/RA] [WSJ RTE/Talley] [WSJ RTE] Here is a plot of two relevant time series.
“Is the U.S. heading toward another recession?”
That was the title of the Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show, with Kerri Miller. Charles Wheelan, of The Naked Economist, and I were the guests.
Links for 2010-09-15
Quick links on sources of job creation, recession probabilities, and alternative ways to access your favorite economic books.
Three Graphs Regarding EGTRRA/JGTRRA
If (1) one is a concerned about budget deficits over the longer term, but (2) is concerned that a reversion to pre-2001 tax rates would hurt short term growth, then one should favor the partial extension of EGTTRA/JGTRRA for only those earning less the $250K ($200K for singles).
The Global Economic Crisis
Impacts, Transmission and Recovery.
This was the topic of a conference I recently attended, sponsored by the Korean Development Institute and the East-West Center, organized by Maurice Obstfeld, Dongchul Cho, Andrew Mason and Sang Hyop Lee. It was a great opportunity to hear diverse views on the progress of the world economy. The papers are here.
Should the Fed try to depress long-term yields further?
I’ve been sharing with readers my recent research with Cynthia Wu, in which we found that the Fed could likely lower long-term interest rates further by buying more long-term securities, even though the short-term rate is essentially zero and even though the newly created reserves would simply sit idle in banks’ accounts with the Fed. Here I’d like to take up the question of whether such a policy would be desirable.
The “Ever-Expanding” Government Sector, Illustrated
Just some numbers to bring reality into the general discussion:
The Budgetary Impact of EGTRRA/JGTRRA Extension and AMT Fixes
…According to the CBO
In evaluating the advisability of extending either completely or partially the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 (aka EGTRRA and JGTRRA), and implementing additional fixes to the AMT, one should consider the impact on the budget.
Snapshots of the Employment Situation, August 2010
I thought I’d add a few observations on the latest employment report (other reports here: [NYT], [WSJ RTE/Izzo] [CR], [Economist’s View]). First, by an alternate measure, employment is improving more rapidly than the standard nonfarm employment (NFP) measure. Second, the alternate measure increased faster than nonfarm payroll employment over the period of temporary Census hiring. Third, aggregate hours worked in the private sector continues to rise faster than private sector employment. Fourth, the NFP growth consistent with zero GDP growth is lower in the last decade, versus previous decades, even while the elasticity of NFP growth with respect to GDP growth has risen.