From Bloomberg’s Mike Rosenberg, in FX Market Insights (June 28):
The euro is now two years into what might be another
long-term downtrend. …
Links for 2010-07-09
A new study
by Fed economists Neil Bhutta, Jane Dokko, and Hui Shan concludes that the median borrower does not strategically default until equity falls to -62 percent of their home’s value.
Karl Smith is not impressed by the USDA’s claims about the effects of a soda tax on childhood obesity.
Political Calculations compares the attractiveness to businesses of locating in California versus Texas.
Some analysts have claimed that basketball star LeBron James saved himself $12 million in taxes by choosing to play in Florida rather than New York, though Aaron Merchak, David Henderson, and
Frank Stephenson refine the calculation.
And some UCLA scientists found that brain scans can predict what you’re going to decide better than you can.
May Global Surface Mean Temp Anomalies
I await June figures with bated breath. From NOAA:
Still in Search of Inflationary Expectations
Given concerns about large budget deficits and quantitative easing feeding into inflation even as actual inflation was falling, I wondered what standard measures indicated. This follows up on the same question I posed in May of last year.
Bob Hall on financial frictions
Via Mark Thoma and Arnold Kling, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis published an interview with Stanford Professor Robert Hall. The interview is terrific not just because Bob is a very smart guy, but also because interviewer Douglas Clement did a great job choosing the right questions. The whole thing’s worth reading, but I wanted to focus today on Bob’s comments on the role of financial frictions in the crisis and policy options to address them.
A Specter is Haunting America
…The specter of fiscal mindlessness
I’m just back from two weeks in Europe. During that time, growth indicators have signaled a slowdown [0] in the midst of a massive negative output gap [1], while a substantial bloc in the Congress refuses to think in a sensible fashion about fiscal policy. This point is most forcefully illustrated by the inability of the Senate to move forward on extending unemployment insurance. (It makes me wonder if some were asking the question, “Are there no poorhouses?”)
No double dip
Although many people are concerned about the possibility of a second economic downturn, I continue to see an economy that is growing, albeit significantly more slowly than we would have wanted.
Jobless recoveries
Also in town for last week’s International Symposium on Forecasting was Bill Gavin from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. I had an interesting discussion with him about changes over time in U.S. employment dynamics that I wanted to share with our readers.
EIA: The China Syndrome
We’re pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on the EIA’s oil demand outlook.
China’s Rebalancing
From Arthur Kroeber, in China Economic Quarterly “Economic rebalancing —
Twin peaks: fiscal and financial reform” [not online]: