As I noted in a previous post, monetary policy works through various channels, one of which is the “bank lending channel”. Lower policy rates, as witnessed in the past few months and shown below, should induce greater lending.
Understanding crude oil prices
That’s the title of my latest research paper. Here’s the summary from the paper’s introduction.
Oil speculation
Several readers call our attention to testimony by Michael Masters, of
Masters Capital Management, before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, on the role that speculation has played in recent commodity price movements. Here is what I think Masters is missing.
RMB Misalignment in a PPP Framework: The Impact of Data Revisions
The World Bank’s new World Development Indicators were released a bit over a month ago. The impact on the estimates of RMB misalignment are substantial. (This is an elaboration on a RGEMonitor post by Yin-Wong Cheung from a week and half ago, and is based on preliminary results from a presentation made yesterday at a Deutsche Bundesbank and Center for Financial Studies/Goethe University Frankfurt Workshop on Panel Methods and Open Economies”.)
Oil price fundamentals
I’ve been offering reasons for believing that the flow of funds into commodity investing has contributed to the recent oil price highs. Although I believe this speculation has gotten ahead of fundamentals in the last few months, there is no question in my mind that market fundamentals are the main reason for the broader 5-year move up in oil prices. Here I review those fundamental factors.
Reconciling Estimates: Biofuels and Food Prices
The AP describes Lazear’s views on the role of biofuels on rising prices thus: “US disputes IMF on food prices”.
From the article by Desmond Butler:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration is disputing the International Monetary Fund’s claim that increased production of biofuels is the biggest factor in rising food prices.
Charles Engel on the oil bubble
Charles Engel, Menzie’s colleague at the University of Wisconsin and my long-time personal friend, enters the world of blogging with some thoughts on whether we’re seeing a bubble in oil prices.
Oil bubble
How speculation may be contributing to the most recent moves in oil prices.
Making fuel out of air and sunshine
Plants do it. Why not you?
High Frequency GDP Estimates
From Macroeconomic Advisers, May 14:
Monthly GDP Index: March 2008
Monthly GDP rose 0.3% in March. This followed a 1.0% decline in February that was revised up from a 1.2% decline in last month’s report. The moderate increase in monthly GDP in March can largely be accounted for by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and domestic spending on capital goods. A large positive contribution from net exports was essentially offset by a large negative contribution from inventory investment. The level of monthly GDP in March was 0.5% below the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest tracking forecast of 2.6% growth of GDP in Q2 assumes average monthly increases of 0.4% per month from April to June.