Two months ago, I posed the question “What Are the Prospects for a Two Recession Bush Presidency?” I think the answer is indeed “pretty good”, given the recent data.
Has the recession started?
The latest employment numbers suggest that the tide has turned.
Three Pictures from the Labor Market
From yesterday’s White House press conference:
Commodity prices and the Fed
If the Fed thinks that recent commodity price moves have nothing to do with their own actions, perhaps they should think again.
Tabulating the Credit Crunch’s Effects: One Educated Guess
In a recent paper, David Greenlaw, Jan Hatzius, Anil K Kashyap, Hyun Song Shin exposed us outsiders to the inside workings of those estimates we see of how the credit crunch affects output. The paper, entitled “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown”, was widely covered ([1], [2], [3], Calculated Risk, Big Picture) but I still think that the conclusions, as well as the methodology, bear some repeating for emphasis. And in any case, it’s a long paper, and different people have focused on different aspects.
It’s not just housing any more
Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Two Questions: What Do Slowing Imports Mean? And Is There a J-Curve?
As the dollar continues to plumb new depths [0], and the economic slowdown continues, I want to discuss two questions about the trade balance that occur to me.
Just how badly is the U.S. economy doing?
That’s the topic of a piece I wrote for today’s San Diego Union-Tribune.
Bernanke’s tightrope act
Some analysts are saying that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is walking a tightrope– if he does not drop interest rates quickly enough, the U.S. will be in recession, but if he goes too far, we’ll see a resurgence of inflation. I am increasingly persuaded that’s not an accurate description of the situation.
Musings on the Dollar: PPP and Thresholds
As the dollar hits a new low against the euro [0], some thoughts on what arguments make sense, given our knowledge of the statistical properties of real exchange rates.