As found here:
The Current Downturn: Labor-leisure tradeoff or technological regress
Some views from an economist who is not “advancing the science”.
Reader Joseph commenting on the stimulus bills brings my attention the Cato ad, wherein several Nobel laureates write against a stimulus plan. Ed Prescott is the Nobel laureate who won for work on growth/macroeconomics, so attention must be paid! I looked a bit for his reasoning, and only found this quote from the East Valley Tribune:
“I don’t know why Obama said all economists agree on [the need for a stimulus bill],” Prescott said. “They don’t. If you go down to the third-tier schools, yes, but they’re not the people advancing the science.”
Estimated Output Gap, post Trade, Inventory Releases
The picture says it all, but here’s the quote from RealTime Economics “Fourth Quarter Looking Worse Every Day”:
Yesterday, wholesale inventory numbers came in smaller than expected, prompting economists to revise down fourth-quarter GDP estimates a bit. But a much bigger adjustment is likely in store thanks to today’s data on trade.
The trade deficit for December was wider than anticipated, and economists estimate it will shave up to 0.9 percentage point off of the fourth-quarter number. “These figures were much worse than BEA assumed in preparing the advance fourth quarter GDP estimate,” said Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, who now expects fourth quarter GDP to be revised down to a 5.2% decline. That figure was in line with other estimates from J.P. Morgan, Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Global Insight and RDQ Economics, who all expect the number to be around 5%.
The Treasury’s Financial Stability Plan
Here’s my two cents on the latest two trillion.
House and Senate Stimulus Bills in Perspective
The Senate has closed debate on its bill. What have “moderates” wrought? Figures 1 and 2 depict the fiscal impulse arising from Senate and House bills, respectively.
Kash Mansori on a home purchase tax credit
We’re pleased today to feature a guest contribution to Econbrowser from Kash Mansori, senior economist for Jefferson Wells International.
The paradox of thrift
Or, how come you used to say that if consumers don’t save more, it will wreck the economy, and now you say, if consumers do save more, it will wreck the economy?
What Are These Three Numbers?
Here is a bar chart of three figures. What are they?
Figure 1: Costs, in billions of dollars.
The Employment Situation in January
Looks pretty bad to me — especially after taking into account downward revisions for December. Not too good on the output side either.
Why Can’t We All Just Get Along? The Great Multiplier Debate
I’ve been thinking about why the numbers that are typically bandied about in policy circles (at least that I’m familiar with) have so little impact on the overall general and blogosphere debate (see some examples here and here). I think it’s part ideological, and part methodological. I can’t do much about the first (e.g., tax cuts good, spending on goods and services bad — unless on defense; or alternatively “let the market adjust no matter how long it takes”). But at least I can lay out why reasons why there is disagreement on the size of the multipliers.