I discussed current economic conditions and the prospects for the Obama stimulus plan on Kerri Miller’s “Midmorning” show on Minnesota Public Radio today. Capital Gains and Games‘ Stan Collender was also speaking. Here’s a link to the audio.
Obama’s economic plans
President-elect Barack Obama today announced more details of the economic team that will be advising the new president. I find these quite encouraging.
Time for a change at the Fed
Plan A didn’t work. Plan B didn’t work. I suggest the Fed get going on Plan C.
GDP Prospects: Mean Estimates Fall and Dispersion Increases
One of the points that all the panelists at last Thursday’s event sponsored by WAGE (“The Global Economic Crisis”) agreed on was how quickly the macroeconomic situation has deteriorated. I wanted to see if one could quantify the rapidity with which growth prospects have changed. Here is one perspective, showing the mean forecast from the October and November WSJ surveys of forecasters.
The Global Economic Crisis: Propagation to the Rest of the World
Last Thursday, I had the opportunity to participate in a panel on Global Economic Crisis: The Untold Stories, sponsored by the Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy (WAGE). I was tasked with surveying the impact on the economy outside the borders of the United States — in 20 minutes.
The Progress of the Financial Crisis in One Picture: Mortgages, Flight to Safety, Credit Lock
Markus Brunnermeier provides an excellent summary graph of the financial crisis, told in “spreads”.
The check is in the mail
Falling gasoline prices will provide some stimulus to the economy. But how much?
Triple “Ut-Oh”: September Trade Release and the End of the Consumer of Last Resort
Brad Setser says “Ut-Oh”, beating me to the punch on the September trade release, which showed US exports plunging. It’s a post that Paul Krugman rightly expresses some angst upon reading. And now I’m going to add two more reasons to worry (not that I think Setser and Krugman aren’t aware of these points).
The anomalous fed funds market
Some further thoughts on the bizarre behavior of the interest rate that used to be the core instrument of U.S. monetary policy.
Real Retail Sales
Here’s a picture of 12-month percentage changes in real retail sales. Certainly unprecedented for the current series, not so much when including the previous (more volatile) discontinued series — although you do have to go back to 1980 to see a bigger 12-month drop.