How bad can things be with almost a 5% growth rate of the real economy?
The Euro as the World’s Reserve Currency: A Progress Report
Back in 2005, Jeff Frankel and I presented a series of projections about the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency. We concluded:
…Whether the euro might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world’s leading international reserve currency appears to depend on two things: (1) do enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy, and (2) does US macroeconomic policy eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar, in the form of inflation and depreciation.
A Pocketful of Multipliers
…or putting some bounds on the magnitudes of effects.
knzn at Economics and… had an interesting post the other day on “The Indirect Effects of Export Demand”, which seems particularly germane to the current situation. After all, net export demand is one of the few bright spots in the US economy.
Relief on oil supplies
We’re finally starting to see signs of gains in global oil production.
Budget Deficit Watch: Receipts Stabilize, Deficit Fails to Shrink
Reader CoRev, in commenting on this post, advises me to look at the actual data for October (instead of the CBO estimate) before declaring a trend deterioration in the budget balance. Well, the data are out.
Oil and the dollar
The dollar falls and oil prices go up. So the two must be related, right?
Why do some economists blog? (Policy edition)
Several people have asked why economists blog. Here are a couple random thoughts centered on individual characteristics.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae back in the news
So how worried should you be?
So now you know
As part of its ongoing efforts at helping the public understand exactly what its intentions might be, the Federal Reserve today released more detailed minutes of its October 30-31 meeting that included the Fed’s expectations for what comes next.
The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?