Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”
Macroeconomic Implications of Forced Mass Deportation
For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born? Native born with both parents undocumented?
Wisconsin Employment Rises versus Voter Perceptions
From DWD today:
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ
WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:
Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates
Messages from the WSJ July Survey:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).
Will Peter Navarro Be Right on Powell?
As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview:
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see the following trajectory for Russian output, and Russia output ex-military spending.