Why did oil breach $138?
Is this a recession and do we care?
Could well be, and yes you should.
Oil Prices in Other Currencies
Some of the explanations for the dollar jump rely upon the perceived weakness in the dollar’s value (and hence, by extension, Fed policy). Does this make sense?
The oil shock of 2008
Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
Following up on this post from October 2006, when oil was only $58.88 (WTI,daily average) a barrel, consider this excerpt from today’s Thomas Net:
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that “the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today.”
SNDE Interview
Bruce Mizrach prepared some very thoughtful questions for an interview at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago. We discussed a broad range of topics, including my background, Markov-switching models, the Fed, oil prices, and why I blog. Below are links you can follow to see the answers to particular questions.
Important Footnotes in Dynamic Scoring
The White House today cited the 2006 Treasury Report in its “Pro Growth Tax Policy” information sheet. From the website:
Anchors away
From the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
GDP on the Eve of Recession: Then and (Maybe) Now
There’s been relief in many circles that GDP in 2008Q1 was revised upward. I too take this as good news, to the extent that the economy seems to be growing more rapidly — and output more balanced — than previously thought. Figure 1 depicts the q/q SAAR growth rate, using the May 2008 preliminary release.
What the Administration Considered Too Dangerous to Release for Four Years
And released only under threat of a court order: “Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States” (summary).
