There’s a lot of talk about recession these days, despite the fairly rapid average growth of GDP in the past few quarters. Krugman (via DeLong) observes a slowdown is coming that might feel a lot like a recession. DeLong considers whether Fed policy has already raised rates to such a degree a recession is inevitable. Roubini bravely cites probabilities. My colleague James Hamilton provides a contrasting opinion, based upon his academic work with Chauvet [pdf].
Econbrowser (and hopefully Bernanke) gets it right
As we predicted here last Friday the Federal Reserve announced today its decision to hold the fed funds rate constant at 5.25%.
Bad news from Alaska
The response of oil prices to the news from Alaska has been more modest than I was expecting, with the September NYMEX crude contract currently up about $2 to $77/barrel.
A pause it shall be
The last month has been something of a cliffhanger for Fed watchers. But today the market seemed to make up its mind.
Autos again taking a hit
The Big 3 U.S. automakers continue to get a little less big.
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit
About that pause
A few weeks ago I noted that the fed funds futures contracts seemed to reflect an expectation that we’d see one more rate hike this fall, and that would be it. But a lot can change in two weeks. Now the message looks more like, “that’s it!”
Report of the National Research Council on “Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years”
What do the scientists (in peer reviewed journals) say about global warming?
Slower second quarter growth
As expected, GDP growth slowed significantly in the second quarter.
Seasonal adjustment and new home sales
How significant is the housing slowdown? Answering requires separating the seasonal from the cyclical factors.