Thanks much to Menzie for holding down the fort while I was away last week. Now that I’m back, I’d like to weigh in on the issue of when did the recession of 2001 begin, a topic on which Menzie, Greg Mankiw, Steve Verdon, Michael Mandel, and Brad DeLong all commented last week.
Does Manufacturing Matter? An Update
Manufacturing employment is down. So is the manufacturing share of output. And so is the estimated tradable share of output. Consequently, as the Economist noted recently, adjustment to a smaller current account deficit might be difficult.
The yield curve: Mid-August 2006
What to make of the newest inversion?
The 2001 recession revisited
With revised data, when did the last recession begin?
Are we winning the war against the budget deficit?
The Congressional Budget Office released its update on the budget outlook today. What’s the message behind the message?
A closer look at the US-China trade figures…and more on the RMB
The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
Billions for production, not a cent for conservation…
Well, not quite. But I find it interesting to see how much revenue the government loses by giving tax breaks to certain groups in the energy arena.
Good and not-so-good reasons to disagree with Bernanke
Some of the reasons people have given for why the Fed should keep raising interest rates make sense to me, and some don’t.
How do oil price shocks affect the economy?
That’s the topic of the latest Wall Street Journal Econoblog, in which I was pleased to participate along with Stephen Brown, who is Director of Energy Economics and Microeconomic Policy Analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The June 2006 Trade Figures
Persisting trends, for now