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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Funniest Thing I Have Heard this Year: Wilbur Ross on Trump’s Trade Policy Success

Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Maybe he was determined, but he had, like Peter Navarro, no clue about how to do it.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases

Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May

Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Misery and Modified Misery

Conventional and Instantaneous

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory

Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-Booth School and FOMC GDP Forecasts

The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Year-on-Year and Instantaneous Inflation in May; Food Prices Declining

Headline and core surprise on the downside: m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.0% vs 0.1% consensus, respectively. More interestingly, Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast for May m/m was 0.30%, actual was 0.16%.

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This entry was posted on June 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP, GDO, GDP+

All have a positive gradient in Q1.

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This entry was posted on June 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

On the Recession Indicator Watch: Retail Sales

Out of curiosity, I peruse the web to see who is still saying a recession is coming (with an open mind). This tweet suggests retail sales are the indicator de jour:

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This entry was posted on June 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Donald Trump on Electric Ships/Boats

From a speech at Las Vegas (source: Newsweek):

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This entry was posted on June 10, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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