DWD reports on April figures. This allows for the following picture of Wisconsin macro aggregates.
Import Prices Surprise
The index came in at +0.9% vs. +0.2% m/m.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May
With industrial production slightly under consensus (0% vs. 0.1% m/m), we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (with heaviest weight on nonfarm payroll employment and personal income excluding transfers).
The Trend Break in CPI
Readers [1] [2] inquired why there appears to be a trend break in (log) CPI at 2022M06. My best guess is the spike in oil prices.
Six Measures of Consumer Prices
Headline CPI shows the second highest increase since 2021M01.
Grocery Prices Decline
The latest CPI release indicates a decline in food-at-home prices.
Infant Industries, Subsidies, Strategic Trade Policy
More to come on how to think about the various tariffs (which seem to come under various authorities, including Sec. 232, Sec. 301, countervailing duties, etc., the White House statement doesn’t spell it all out) in a bit. But first, some slides covering nuances of trade policy (not even thinking about national security issues) from my 2022 trade policy class.
Friends Don’t Let Friends Think Only Bivariately
On thinking about today’s CPI numbers:
Instantaneous Core Inflation Drops, Core CPI Level below Consensus
From the CPI release today.
When a Purported Policy Analyst Writes: “Does a confidence interval … change what you would have done or should do? If it doesn’t, then it’s a mere artefact, a curiosity, but of no use to people making real world decisions”
You should run away from that “policy analyst” as fast as you can. The above is a quote from Steven Kopits, who styles himself a policy analyst. His entire comment is here.