“You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet” (9/27/2024). I won’t dissect the non-arguments in the article. I’ll just observe that the GDP annual update has brought the GDP series much more in line with the Philadelphia Fed’s tracking of output, in its Coincident Index.
Main Street Agenda town hall meeting in Milwaukee: Inflation
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here.
Misery Index, 2020M12 and 2024M08: 8.0% vs. 6.8%
With latest available data:
Consumer Sentiment and Expectations (Rev’d) in September
Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Guest Contribution: “What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%
With August data:
Business Cycle Indicators – August 2024 and Annual Updates
Still hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data.
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Decomposing the Revision to GDO
One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather than the reverse.
Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden
Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic).