Reader Erik Poole suggests using the Hamilton filter instead of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in assessing how much the CPI deviated from trend (recall, i noted that the CPI rose 2% vs trend at the same time as oil prices were elevated, before and after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine). I am (more than) happy to oblige.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine
A reader, critiquing the argument that the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine could not explain accelerating inflation before February 2022, observes “The surge of inflation happened well before the war.” I don’t think this characterization is entirely accurate, but in any case, oil prices rose before the so-called “Special Military Operation”, and price pressures showed up concurrently.
Real Median and Average Earnings, Normalized to NBER Peak
1 mo-Fed funds Spread vs. 3 mo-1 mo Spread
Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises.
Timely Data on Median Wages
A reader complains that data on median real wages are not available on a timely basis (as compared to average real wages). What does this purportedly suppressed data indicate about the evolution of real wages?
Remembering Trump Economic Prognostications
In the wake of Mr. Trump’s admonition to Republicans to try out default, please recall:
Real Wages, 2007-2023M04
Higher than at previous NBER peak (2020M02):
On Debt Default
Full quote of Donald Trump regarding default (CNBC):
“Well, you might as well do it now because you’ll do it later because we have to save this country. Our country is dying. Our country is being destroyed by stupid people, by very stupid people.”
Estimates of the X-Date
From the Bipartisan Policy Center, from DB, from Bloomberg, from CBO.
Term Spreads and Breakevens
As of today: