So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition

Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part IPart IIPart IIIPart IVPart VPart VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)

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