If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not even those for hospitality and leisure. That’s not true for total private NFP using the PCE deflator. [italics denote correction 12/5]
A couple of plots to highlight the fact that the November number on nonfarm payroll employment should be understood in the context of ongoing revisions in the data (see release here).
Monthly GDP grows 1.5% m/m, pushed by exports. Along with current expectations for this Friday’s employment release, we have the following picture.
consider the velocity of M2…
Five year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) down, 10yr-3mo term spread down, VIX and EPU up, and S&P 500 down.
There’s a lot of discussion regarding the negative impact of inflation on consumer sentiment. That’s definitely there – but unemployment also has a negative impact. And there is a (at least short run) tradeoff between the two. Relevantly, what would unemployment be in the absence of the American Recovery Plan, the CARES Act, and expansionary monetary policies of the Fed?
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
I’m teaching unconventional monetary policy in Financial Systems course. Here’s some interesting graphs (not altogether new), relating to forward guidance effectiveness.
Usually, the Friday after Thanksgiving holiday is a quiet trading day. Today, there was lots of news to react to.
Expectations and forecasts from economists continue to diverge from consumer based expectations.