The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.
GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below:
From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds: