As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).
You Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices
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June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.
Policy Uncertainty Spikes
As of today:
Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
Various observers (e.g. Furman) have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this indicator cast into doubt prospects for rapid growth.
Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and gold holdings through 2025Q1.
CEA Unleashed!
From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB:
$1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction from higher growth unleashed by enhanced deregulation and energy policies
“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”
That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income excluding transfers also decline in May…
Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures
Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it.
GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers
From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release.
Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?
Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from SPGMI and manufacturing and trade industry sales down in April…it’s reasonable to ask whether this is all signaling something.