Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):
What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
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Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line):
Odds of a recession in 2025:
From Bloomberg:
As of close today:
GDPNow as of today:
Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for consumption in December.
Jim Hamilton (with others) answers the question in the San Diego Union-Tribune:
Using final March numbers:
Reader Bruce Hall comments on this post showing the implications of a short horizon probit model of recession likelihood.