It’s not smaller than this point in 2024:
Federal Budget Deficit through May
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Macroeconomic Implications of Premature Escalation in LA
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA 14%, NY 8%; slightly larger if using real GDP):
In Case You Thought Policy Uncertainty Had Declined
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle on things?
Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we are currently the same recession. However, since then, the indicator has decreased substantially, so the recession probability is low.
“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.
Is American Consumption too High?
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes.
Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar
As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts.
Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
WEI continues to decline.
GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of)
Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend.