Follow up to “So you think we’re in a recession as of beginning August”…and rejoinder to those who believe we’ve already been in recession for a while.
Using flash estimates for Euro Area HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q falling:
Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down. Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts as of early July, out on Friday.
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., ). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
From today’s release:
The impact of news, in the past three hours…
If so, consider the gasoline intensity of GDP: