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FT-Booth September Survey

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The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].

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This entry was posted on September 19, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September

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Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP.

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This entry was posted on September 18, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

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Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.

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This entry was posted on September 17, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and Forecasts – Mid-September

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GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).

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This entry was posted on September 15, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation in August

35 Replies

Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.

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This entry was posted on September 14, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Oil Price Forecast

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Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Official and Supplemental Poverty Rates, through 2022

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The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals).

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Urals Discount to Brent $16.3

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From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

How Much Have (Ex Ante) Real Rates Risen?

1 Reply

Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Calling Graduate Students of the 1980’s…

16 Replies

I found this Bloomberg article about the exhaustion of pandemic-benefits related savings of interest and the coming consumption crash of interest.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • FT-Booth September Survey
  • Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
  • Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
  • Nowcasts and Forecasts – Mid-September
  • Inflation in August

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since July 28, 2022)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 4.9 (describes  2023:Q1)

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