Plain vanilla probit models indicate a high probability of recession, especially using the 10yr-3mo spread:
Term Spread Recession Forecasts for January 2024
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Data Sources: A Compendium [Updated]
For students in my courses, some useful data links.
The Cyclically Adjusted Federal Budget Balance
Just a reminder – the budget balance is endogenous (as long as one believes in a fiscal multiplier).
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Inflation – Services vs. Goods
In this Marketplace piece (with Justin Ho), one of the main points is the disjuncture between the evolution of consumption and inflation rate for services vs. all else. Here’re some pictures.
Instantaneous PCE Inflation and Competitors
Based upon the working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), here’s the PCE inflation rate up to December:
GDP, GDP+, and GDO(?) for Q4
According to some aggregate measure, there was a slowdown in 2022H1, but GDP+ says not.
Five Measures of Private Employment
Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:
Business Cycle Indicators as of end-January 2023 and Q1 Nowcasts
With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
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Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine
From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.