Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition) [updated 8/9/25]

5 Replies

I hear that Bannon is pushing Heritage Chief Economist EJ Antoni for BLS Commissioner.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 7, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing on the Ropes?

Leave a reply

Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 7, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch

3 Replies

Bill McBride’s assessment here.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market

5 Replies

You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?

Leave a reply

Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’ trade/manufacturing dependence.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26

Leave a reply

From Cavallo et al. (Aug. 2025):

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy” [updated 8/9 w/recording]

6 Replies

This week’s livestream featuring Menzie Chinn and Lydia Cox, moderated by Mike Knetter, is Tuesday, Aug. 5, at 7 p.m. CDT (hosted by the Wisconsin Alumni Association):

Register here. Youtube video here. My slides here:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured

Leave a reply

Through 8/3:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump’s Willing Enabler

2 Replies

From the NYT:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?

5 Replies

Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling all the most recent data will be revised):

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • CPI Print Tomorrow
  • Trump Nominates EJ Antoni to BLS Commissioner
  • Banking on Data Center Investment
  • Guest Contribution: “Cryptocurrencies and the political economy of money”
  • Stock Market Capitalization ex-Magnificent 7

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress