The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Here’s the current situation:
Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
My guess for private NFP:
ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):
From the IMF (9/27/2024):
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 135:
Here’s a snapshot of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
High frequency indicators (PMI, etc.) suggest — and have suggested — a slowdown in manufacturing. Still, other indicators indicate sideways trending. Here’s a picture, incorporating the just-available manufacturing value added for Q2, as well employment incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision.
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.