Since the Covid pandemic struck in the US in 2020M02, 1.1 percentage points; since 2021M03, 1.6 percentage points, using HICPs (0.4 ppts and 0.7 ppts, respectively using CPI for US, HICP for Euro Area).
Over the last 9 months, the S&P500 has seemingly peaked and is now declining. Risk, discounting or something else?
From “GS Economic Indicators: China CAI Falls to -11% in April”:
With the release of industrial production (1.1% m/m vs. 0.5% Bloomberg consensus; mfg 0.8% vs. 0.4% consensus), we have the April reading for another key indicator followed by the NBER BCDC.
This is a reprint of a post from 2020.
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!
Industrial output, manufacturing down. Retail sales down.
Up, up and away. But that’s been true in the past too.
Drop in GDP trajectory, rise in inflation expectations, and expected long rates up.
Back in the more innocent days of 2010, we had Sarah Palin – “Drill, baby, drill” (more innocent because folk were just circulating doctored photos of President Obama, instead of threatening to kill elected officials). Now, we have a new chorus of people asserting that allowing more permitting would relieve gasoline price pressures. Well, from the Dallas Fed (courtesy of Bruce Hall), some text in plain English.
Five year inflation breakeven shrinks, ten year – three month spread dives, TIPS and expected real rates rise above zero. The S&P500 and Bitcoin falls even as VIX remains at sub-Trump levels.