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Term Spread Recession Forecasts for January 2024

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Plain vanilla probit models indicate a high probability of recession, especially using the 10yr-3mo spread:

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This entry was posted on January 30, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Data Sources: A Compendium [Updated]

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For students in my courses, some useful data links.

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This entry was posted on January 30, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

The Cyclically Adjusted Federal Budget Balance

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Just a reminder – the budget balance is endogenous (as long as one believes in a fiscal multiplier).

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This entry was posted on January 29, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Inflation – Services vs. Goods

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In this Marketplace piece (with Justin Ho), one of the main points is the disjuncture between the evolution of consumption and inflation rate for services vs. all else. Here’re some pictures.

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This entry was posted on January 29, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous PCE Inflation and Competitors

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Based upon the working paper by Jan Eeckhout (UPF Barcelona), here’s the PCE inflation rate up to December:

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This entry was posted on January 29, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP, GDP+, and GDO(?) for Q4

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According to some aggregate measure, there was a slowdown in 2022H1, but GDP+ says not.

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This entry was posted on January 28, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Five Measures of Private Employment

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Various observers have argued private employment stagnated in Q2 and after (see debate here), perhaps signalling a recession in Q2. With Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics release, we have the following measures of cumulative changes since 2021M09:

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This entry was posted on January 27, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of end-January 2023 and Q1 Nowcasts

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With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:

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This entry was posted on January 27, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
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This entry was posted on January 26, 2023 by James_Hamilton.

Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine

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From NYT:

The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2023 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Remembering (or Not) the Recession of 2022H1
  • Carl Walsh Blogging “Thoughts on Fed Policy”
  • The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
  • The Employment Situation Release: Benchmark Revisions and Seasonality
  • Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap – January 2023”

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