Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
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Employment Slowdown in Context
NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while preliminary benchmark is below.
Peter Schiff on Recession
Peter Schiff today:
This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.
Business Cycle Indicators as of September’s Start
Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP:
Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation: “some suspect government statisticians are committing lies of omission.”
And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure!
For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.
It’s Almost as If Some People Were Rooting for Recession
EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Big Mac Nation in Recession?
Actually, no — but perhaps a fast food nation in recession. In arguing that output is mismeasured, so much so we’ve been in recession for the past four years, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) write:
Various studies have shown that since 2019 fast food prices — a gold standard in financial markets for measuring true inflation — have outpaced official CPI by between 25% and 50%.