In my first published peer-reviewed article, Peter Navarro and I argued that both economic special interests and candidate ideology separately could explain Congressional voting farm subsidies (we also applied the framework to domestic content legislation for automobiles), following Kalt and Zupan (AER 1984). In the ongoing discussions of how many members of the Republican caucus would vote for the (yet to be released) debt ceiling bill, I wondered how one would test the separate effects.
Aggregate Demand vs. Income: Sometimes an Important Distinction
Going back to intro macro, remember when we quickly impose the equilibrium condition Y=AD? What does it mean that Y doesn’t equal AD? Here’s a quick reminder.
Conflicting Signals for Coincident Macro Indicators at End-May
Monthly indicators of employment, consumption, personal income (ex-transfers) are all rising in April. But GDO and GDP+ show a decline for 2022Q4 and 2023Q1.
“The Charles Ives Opera Award”
My wife Laura Schwendinger, and Ginger Strand, were awarded this prize by the American Academy of Arts and Letters, for their opera Artemisia.
“Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
That’s the title of a conference in Padova, September 21-22. Call for papers (deadline 5/31!).
X-Date Estimate – June 5 or so?
From Zeng and Ryan at DeutscheBank yesterday.
Percent vs. Percentage Points…and…Exponential vs. Linear
One can talk about a percent increase in a profit margin… but that really only serves to confuse.
Why Might Firms Raise Prices Faster than Input Prices?
Josh Bivens at EPI has recently presented a decomposition of price changes into those attributable to price-cost margins (i.e., roughly profits), labor and nonlabor input prices, to wit:
One Year US Treasury CDS
What’s the chances? Depends on what the assumed recovery rate is. Here’s the cost of insurance.
Negative GDP Growth Is Delayed Again
In the Survey of Professional Forecasters median, but some still see it as likely). Here’s an interesting picture from the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters and GDPNow.