Plain vanilla probit models indicate a high probability of recession, especially using the 10yr-3mo spread:
For students in my courses, some useful data links.
Just a reminder – the budget balance is endogenous (as long as one believes in a fiscal multiplier).
According to some aggregate measure, there was a slowdown in 2022H1, but GDP+ says not.
With the release of December 2022 consumption and personal income, and November real manufacturing and trade industry sales, plus Q4 GDP, we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.