The CPI release for August numbers is tomorrow. As of today, here are the Cleveland Fed nowcasts for CPI and Core CPI:
August CPI – Nowcasts
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Inflation – A Comprehensive Global Database, 1970-2021
From Ha, Kose, and Ohnsorge, One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation:
FT-IGM Macro Survey, on GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy
From FT Friday, “Economists predict US interest rate rise in 2022” (Colby Smith/Christine Zhang), discussion of results of the second FT-Chicago Booth IGM survey of macroeconomists:
Guest Contribution: “Is policy effective at promoting the international role of the renminbi?”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Georgios Georgiadis (European Central Bank), Helena Le Mezo (European Central Bank) , Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank), and Cédric Tille (Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies, Geneva). The views expressed in this column are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. They should not be reported as such.
Trilemma Indices Updated
The International Trilemma — sometimes called the Impossible Trinity — is the proposition that a country cannot pursue simultaneously full capital mobility, full exchange rate stability, and full monetary autonomy.
The August Employment Situation
The undershoot in nonfarm payroll employment is noticeable, with a flattening in high contact services employment growth.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Early September
With the August employment situation release, we have the following picture of the macroeconomy.
“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”
Some do; some don’t. Revised paper by me, Hiro Ito, and Robert McCauley. From the abstract:
China and the Initial Response to Covid-19
A must watch documentary, even if you know the basic history: Frontline‘s “China’s Covid Secrets“.
Inflation Outlook – Looking Forward to August Data
If the Cleveland Fed nowcasts are accurate, month-on-month CPI inflation will be down, core CPI rising slightly from 4 to 4.2% (annualized).