Starting teaching today a course on the financial system. Here are some graphs of the current situation, through August.
The Financial System: Some Graphs
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Nowcasted “Core GDP” Decelerates
Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers — arguably a better indicator over time about momentum in the economy in the wake of the tariff-frontrunning — was 1.9% q/q AR. Four days ago, nowcasted final sales for Q3 was 2.4%. Today’s GDPNow release takes that number down to 1.7%, a slowdown from Q2.
It Can’t Happen Here: Inflation Edition
I was thinking about how a completely subservient central bank can destroy price stability, referring to examples from history. From Phillip Cagan’s U.Chicago dissertation:
All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July
And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too:
Guest Contribution: “Turning Medical Science Back to 1900”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
Still on the Trade Policy Uncertainty Roller Coaster
The appeals court decision is a win, but we’re still a far way from resolving policy uncertainty:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-of-August
Real personal income ex-transfers, manufacturing and trade industry sales, civilian employment, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, industrial and manufacturing production, real retail sales, vehicle miles traveled, and freight transportation services are all below recent peaks. Other than that, the economy is growing.
Deceleration Confirmed
Despite the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and accelerated nowcast growth in 3rd quarter GDP, aggregate demand is decelerating.
Term Premium and Trsy-TIPS Breakeven
The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s campaign to subjugate the Fed.
G. Dirk Mateer Asks: “Do We Still Really Need the Bureau of Labor Statistics?”
I’d say “yes”. From RealClearPolitics: