In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
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Economic Policy Uncertainty through 3/6/2025: Through the Roof!
The 7 day centered moving average is only exceeded by the April 2 and April 23 observations (the latter is “bleach”, if you are wondering).
Business Cycle Indicators plus Employment for February
CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).
EPU, News Sentiment, Term Spreads, VIX
Data available as of today:
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s far out negotiating positions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, written in advance of the March 4 tariffs, was published by Project Syndicate and the Korea Herald.
Nowcasts accounting for Gold Imports
Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow:
EPU through 3/5
Highest 7 day moving average since Covid…(not sure if that date coincides with “bleach”):
Is a Recession Still Coming?
Despite the lack of coincident indicators suggesting a recession’s onset (we’ll see more on Friday), there are plenty of articles now suggesting an imminent recession: “Wall Street Banks Say Markets Are Flashing Rising Recession Risk”, “The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street”, “Whisper it and it’s back: Recession risk creeps onto markets’ radar”, “2025 Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators”. Kalshi’s recession probability for 2025 is now at 42%, after languishing at around 22% for a month. Assuming no recession as of February, what does a conventional term spread (10yr-3mo) model for 12 months ahead indicate?
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January’s 135479K).
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture: