From the World Bank report:
Suppose the historical correlations between the 7 day moving average of covid deaths and hospitalizations and ICU beds holds. What does that imply for future trends in covid related deaths?
It’s often said that economists know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Well, here goes anyway.
Compiling graphs for a trade course, and lo what did I see:
One reason why inflation exceeded my estimates from earlier this year is the price of imports. Since 2020M02, goods import prices from China have risen 5.3%, after declining 5.8% over the preceding six years. The dollar depreciated by 9.4% over the same period, implying a exchange rate pass-through coefficient of 0.56.
Industrial production comes in below consensus (-0.1% vs. Bloomberg +0.3% m/m). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
The CPI surprised on the upside by 10 bps relative to Bloomberg consensus (also higher vs. Cleveland Fed nowcasts). How did financial markets respond?
Beware the headlines — month-on-month inflation is (again) down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and chained CPI price inflation are also down, while sticky price inflation was flat. Headline and core CPI did surprise on the upside though (m/m, 10 bps over Bloomberg consensus).