Ever since the Walker Administration ended the issuance of the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (last issue May 2015), those of us outside of the government have been a little in the dark when trying to assess state level economic conditions in a systematic manner. In a recent paper (updated version 8/1), Ryan LeCloux and I assess how various macroeconomic aggregates track the Wisconsin economy at higher-than-annual frequency. Investigating the behavior of these series yields the following graph.
Monthly Archives: July 2018
A Great Second Quarter Report — But Beware the Context
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release, here are four observations.
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Great second-quarter GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s significantly better than the 2.2% average growth we’ve seen since the Great Recession ended in 2009, and is also a little above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years.
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The Return of Global Imbalances (As Foretold)
Nearly a year ago, I asked Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?. At a minimum, we know they’re back. And the IMF certainly thinks so.
Who Will Help the Hogs?
Unlike soybeans, I’ve seen no rebound in hog prices (front month futures) with the announcement of the $12 billion farm bailout:
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Guest Contribution: “Apology Tour d’horizon”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Why Stop at $12 Billion?
The losses incurred by the ag sector might already exceed the size of the ag sector bailout proposed by Trump. One constraint is the WTO.
Credit: Russell Hodin, via Ian Bremmer. [added 7/26, 1:34PM Pacific]
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At Business Cycle Frequencies, Macro Dominates in Trade Flows
Just a reminder, the Chinese have an instrument we do not; the question is whether they dare use it:
Pork Exports to China Zero’d Out?
According to Prof. Mary Lovely, trade economist at Syracuse University:
“In recent weeks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported zero weekly export sales of pork to China. … So our exports to the country have pretty much collapsed.”
Is California in Recession? (Part VIII)
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of the 2018Q1 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.