Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower in the last 15 years, suggesting a trend decrease; the “vibecession” talk of 2024 is part of that phenomenon.
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are remarkably upbeat on the future.
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2%
47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3.
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends.
From the releases today:
From Kalshi:
As of March end:
