Nice roundup on political economy and geoeconomics from Council on Foreign Relations.
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post
Remarkably low (considering) and high (since it’s *economic* policy):
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you might not be imagining it (although one would be very hard pressed to show it’s a statistically significant difference). To see this, compare against the ADP measure.
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
From inflation breakevens, estimated:
Trump Credibility Measured
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:
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Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?
If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not.
So Much Winning: Guess I Should’a Bought My Airline Ticket Five Weeks Ago
Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED:
The Troika Economic Forecast under Vought-Miran-Bessent
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late.
Manufacturing Employment and Hours
ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down.
First Readings on March Data, and Business Cycle Indicators
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start.