Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Financial Deregulation: Thanks, Trump

On banking regulation, from Forbes:

Thanks to Trump and his supporters this [Dodd-Frank capital and liquidity measures] all changed. Some of the key changes that EGRRCPA made were:

  • Increasing the asset threshold for “systemically important financial institutions” or, “SIFIs,” from $50 billion to $250 billion.
  • Immediately exempting bank holding companies with less than $100 billion in assets from enhanced prudential standards imposed on SIFIs under Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Act (including but not limited to resolution planning and enhanced liquidity and risk management requirements)
  • Exempting bank holding companies with between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets from the enhanced prudential standards.
  • Limiting stress testing conducted by the Federal Reserve to banks and bank holding companies with $100 billion or more in assets.



Looking Backward to the “Recession of 2022H1” and Forward to the Recession of 2023

Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).

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