The employment surprise in context.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
Coincident index for February out today.
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
From BEA:
An Event Study: News and Trump Media and Technology Group, 4/1/2024
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve specification can predict the disinflation. Answer: Yes.
Wisconsin End-of-2023 Surge
From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.