From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
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Mysteries of the CPI Release
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
A Conjectured Sahm Index for November [corrected]
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).
Real Retail Sales Down, Again
From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re down.
The Employment Picture: We’d Better Hope the Powell Conjecture Is Wrong
NFP and private NFP upside surprise +64K v +50K Bloomberg, +69K v +45K Bloomberg. According to official data as well as implied benchmark revision data, NFP is treading water. According to the Powell conjecture that the current BLS series has been overstating employment growth by 60K/month, we are well past NFP peak.
Employment Declining in CA, NY
Downshift in TX. These three states account for about 27% of national NFP employment, and about 1/3 of US GDP.
Nonfarm payroll employment estimates through November
Goldman Sachs, ADP implied, etc. Also Powell conjecture.
Did Tariffs Actually Decrease Imports in September?
Maybe, maybe not. The NYT headline blares “Tariffs Shrank Trade Deficit in September, New Data Show”. Imports did decrease from earlier, but that’s after a tremendous surge. The actual article is a more nuanced (i.e., that’s a lousy title).
Employment, Heavy Truck Sales and Cautionary Notes
Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April. If so, nonfarm payroll employment is trending down.
Further Deceleration in Nowcasted “Core GDP”
Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption and fixed investment) to GDP growth (q/q AR) was 2.84%, close to the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.