Illustrated (red squares):
The Current Administration’s Current Official Economic Forecast
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The Year in Review, 2020: Hanging on for Dear Life (and Rational Policymaking)
I remember once seeing a book on a used bookstore shelf in Washington DC (Second Story Books?) years ago entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters” or something like that. Over this year, I’ve been thinking that one could write an entire book series entitled “Great Public Policy Disasters of 2020” . With that in mind, here’s the year in review:
Guest Contribution: “The Year 2020 in Three Phrases”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and The Guardian.
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of December 30
Weekly Covid-19 fatalities are falling according to CDC estimates, although CDC determined fatalities are consistently below alternatively sourced estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities have been revised upward.
Some Economic Data Release Conventions
When I first started working in the government, I was often confused by the many different ways in which economic data is reported. Now, thirty years into teaching economics – -particularly international economics – – I still have to help out my students when they venture outside of the safe world of textbooks to read official reports from different governments and institutions. So, here’s an incomplete (but hopefully helpful) primer on some conventions used in relevant government releases:
Protectionist High Water Mark?
“… the quick fix, of the “countervailing tariff,” “voluntary” restraints, and the like, will only mean higher prices for consumers in the short run, and greater distress in the long term. “Reciprocity” … notwithstanding, protectionism will only prove a temporary, and costly, palliative for inefficient industries, in a world populated by NICs, MICs and [Advanced Developing Countries].”
State GDP Relative to 2019Q4
Here’s the cumulative GDP decline relative to 2019Q4, nationwide:
Wisconsin GDP in Q3
Recovery in Wisconsin has brought real GDP back to within 4% of peak levels.
Guest Contribution: “The US consumer benefits from Chinese imports”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by Liang Bai (University of Edinburgh) and Sebastian Stumpner (Banque de France). The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
“In Memory of Richard Cooper”
By Jeffrey Frankel, December 24, 2020.