Wisconsin CPI-deflated Wages back to January 2011 Levels

Regarding the slowdown in employment growth in February, reader Neil asks:

To what extent could the weakness in February be a payback for the outsized growth in December and January. The three month average for nonfarm growth in Wisconsin looks solid. Also, do you have any thoughts on the average hourly earnings data? Looks like Wisconsin is seeing strong growth over the last year.

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Wisconsin February Employment Wrapup: Growth at Standstill, Private NFP Still 18,800 below Gov. Walker’s 250,000 New Jobs Promise

Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment for January revised down, flatlines for February.


Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment, February release (dark bold red), January release (red), December (pink), 000’s, s.a, on log scale. Light green shaded period denotes data benchmarked to QCEW data. Source: BLS.

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The “Real” Trade Balance: Measurement and Prospects

The conventionally reported trade balance (or “net exports”) for the United States from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) is net exports of goods and services, in nominal terms. (There are also trade balance measures on a Census basis and Balance of Payments basis, which differ in coverage and definitions.) The inflation adjusted trade balance is hard to calculate correctly, given the use of chain weighted measures of exports and imports. Here I plot a (Törnqvist) approximation to the real trade balance.

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