Guest Contribution: “How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade?”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Reuven Glick at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Andrew Rose at the University of California at Berkeley. The views expressed below do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This blog is an updated version of FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-09, March 21, 2016.


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Dueling nowcasts

The second quarter of 2016 is now more than half over, but we won’t receive the first reading on 2016:Q2 GDP from the BEA until the end of July. A forecast of something that is happening right now is sometimes described as a “nowcast”. The Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Atlanta are providing a valuable service by publishing continuously updated nowcasts of GDP. But what should we do if they’re giving us rather different numbers?
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