From a new book from Cambridge:
Yin-Wong Cheung: “The RMB in the Global Economy”
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Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?
No.
Term Spread Recession Forecasts
Yesterday’s Bloomberg article “Fed Staff Sees a 50-50 Chance of Recession” spurred me to examine the implications of the latest readings on term spreads. Figure 1 depicts the recession probabilities estimated using a simple probit model based on the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads, through November 23rd.
How to End an Endless Debate
A long running debate between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real wages, with JohnH quoting from various documents. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to resolve the question. Below are three graphs, of consumer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
CFNAI on the Putative Recession of 2022H1
Regarding the view the US economy was in recession earlier this year (e.g., this observer less than a month ago), the CFNAI has the following takes:
Implications of a Flex-Price Quantity Theory
The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology:
The State of the Economy in Real Time, Election Eve and Year Ahead
Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured in growth rates relative to long-run national average growth, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly economic conditions index.
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-November
Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The GDP Outlook: Nowcast vs. Forecast
Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in Q4.
The “Trap” Closes: Kherson, 11/11/2022
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer: