[Galations, 6:7]
As 25% tariffs were imposed on US pork exports to China, hog futures continued the downward decline.
Source: ino.com.
As you sow…
55 Replies
Another Event Study: Hogs
Source: ino.com.
When Did Minnesota and Wisconsin Fortunes Diverge?
Reader PeakTrader says the fortunes of Minnesota and Wisconsin “began to diverge decade before Walker”. I don’t buy it.
A Deceleration in Economic Activity?
Third release numbers on GDP are out. Growth of Gross Domestic Output — the average of GDP and GDI — is down much more than that of GDP: nearly a percentage point.
Wisconsin and Its Neighbors
Still not the leader of the pack.
Wisconsin CPI-deflated Wages back to January 2011 Levels
Regarding the slowdown in employment growth in February, reader Neil asks:
To what extent could the weakness in February be a payback for the outsized growth in December and January. The three month average for nonfarm growth in Wisconsin looks solid. Also, do you have any thoughts on the average hourly earnings data? Looks like Wisconsin is seeing strong growth over the last year.
Wisconsin February Employment Wrapup: Growth at Standstill, Private NFP Still 18,800 below Gov. Walker’s 250,000 New Jobs Promise
Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment for January revised down, flatlines for February.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment, February release (dark bold red), January release (red), December (pink), 000’s, s.a, on log scale. Light green shaded period denotes data benchmarked to QCEW data. Source: BLS.
Who Will Pay for the Wall? DoD Edition
The latest harebrained idea from Mr. Trump — but I could believe it more than the Mexicans paying for the wall.
Ready, Shoot, Aim: Who Else Gets Hurt in a Sino-US Trade War?
Because the value added of Chinese exports to the United States is fairly low (i.e., exports incorporate lots of foreign components), it is unclear how much damage would be inflicted on bystanders. Wells Fargo uses data on trade in value added to show Taiwan’s exposure.
The “Real” Trade Balance: Measurement and Prospects
The conventionally reported trade balance (or “net exports”) for the United States from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) is net exports of goods and services, in nominal terms. (There are also trade balance measures on a Census basis and Balance of Payments basis, which differ in coverage and definitions.) The inflation adjusted trade balance is hard to calculate correctly, given the use of chain weighted measures of exports and imports. Here I plot a (Törnqvist) approximation to the real trade balance.