With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
Sixteen years ago, the G.W. Bush White House suppressed for four years this report on global climate change impacts, which discussed, among other things, the increased prevalence of wildfires. This was discussed in this post, entitled “What the Administration Considered Too Dangerous to Release for Four Years”.
If you are trying to argue that fatality counts are currently higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 1, below. If you are trying to argue that currently per capita fatality rates are higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 2. (Note Figure 1 on a log scale.) [graphs from Financial Times‘s excellent interactive website]
I read some triumphalist claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.
My guess, based on a first differences specification of Wisconsin employment on national, in logs, 2019-2020M07.
In the latest conspiracy theory, some have argued that since only about 6% of Covid-19 fatalities state solely Covid-19 as a cause of death, pandemic fatalities are incredibly overstated. Inspection of the statistics suggest reported Covid-19 fatalities are, if anything, understating pandemic fatalities.