The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:
Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
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Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:
Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently.
Some Basic Math on Why I Think the Recession Likelihood Is Greater than 30%
Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of recession in the next 12 months to 30%, from 35%, and earlier 45% (Reuters). It’s important to note that these projections are conditional on the path of future policies — which in these times are less clear than ever.
Economic Implications of “a narcissistic populist presidency”
That’s Cliff Winston’s assessment here at LSEblog:
P. Joyce: “Why Protecting the Congressional Budget Office Should Matter to the Congress, and to the Country”
From an article by Philip Joyce (UMD):
Weekly Economic Index, for Data Released through 6/7
Lewis, Mertens & Stock WEI vs Baumeister, Leiva-Leon & Sims WECI:
[Repost] If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids
[Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
Non-Economic Public Service Announcement
If you are a person of color, I suggest carrying your US passport at all times, given recent detentions of US citizens. I certainly am. After all, “mistakes” occur.
Federal Budget Deficit through May
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024: