With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
Business Cycle Indicators, September 15th
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Massive Wildfires in the West: Who Could’ve Guessed?
Sixteen years ago, the G.W. Bush White House suppressed for four years this report on global climate change impacts, which discussed, among other things, the increased prevalence of wildfires. This was discussed in this post, entitled “What the Administration Considered Too Dangerous to Release for Four Years”.
For the Innumerate
If you are trying to argue that fatality counts are currently higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 1, below. If you are trying to argue that currently per capita fatality rates are higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 2. (Note Figure 1 on a log scale.) [graphs from Financial Times‘s excellent interactive website]
Are US Covid-19 Fatalities Declining? Probably
I read some triumphalist claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.
September Economic Forecasts: Uncertainty Dominates at Year End
“Scott Walker: Wisconsin’s agricultural, manufacturing jobs would be ‘devastated’ under Biden leadership”
That’s title of a FoxNews article. Like all things emanating from the former governor, you have to look at the data to assess. Let’s consider first agriculture under Walker.
August Wisconsin Employment: Continued Slow Recovery?
My guess, based on a first differences specification of Wisconsin employment on national, in logs, 2019-2020M07.
Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, and Conspiracies
In the latest conspiracy theory, some have argued that since only about 6% of Covid-19 fatalities state solely Covid-19 as a cause of death, pandemic fatalities are incredibly overstated. Inspection of the statistics suggest reported Covid-19 fatalities are, if anything, understating pandemic fatalities.
Guest Contribution: “Robots and Labor Demand: Evidence from Japan”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Robert Dekle, Professor of Economics at USC.
Nowcasts
Two-thirds of the way through Q3.
Figure 1: Reported GDP (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (green), IHS Markit (green), NY Fed nowcast (red), CBO August projection (blue). Source: BEA 2020Q2 2nd release, GDPNow, IHS Markit, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.