Released today by CEA:
CEA: “Tariffs as a Major Revenue Source: Implications for Distribution and Growth”
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Inflation, Greedflation, Economy-wide vs. Corporate Sector
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?” If one defines inflation as a broad, economy-wide increase in prices, the answer is mostly “no”.
Four Measures of Consumer Prices for June (and Two for May)
In addition to CPI, we have chained CPI, CPI-wage earners, HICP, a nowcast for PCE, as well as May PCE – market based. The four June price indices are down.
Instantaneous PPI Inflation
PPI reads above consensus:
Instantaneous Inflation in June
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively).
Nontraditional Reserve Holdings, Through 2022
…although incomplete data for 2022.
Reserve De-Dollarization in Progress?
More articles on dollar dominance, e.g. in Foreign Policy, Wells Fargo, vs. BitcoinNews. But most of the discussion centers on dollar use in terms medium of exchange etc. (SWIFT use, invoicing). Here, some recent trends for the reserve dimension.
An Alternative Civilian Employment Measure
Several observers have pointed out the gap between civilian employment as measured by the CPS, and the nonfarm payroll employment numbers obtained from the CES. The CPS measure includes new population controls, which depend on the estimated immigration. CBO estimates a lot more net immigration than Census, which when applied to employment might alter our views of employment.
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Monetary Policy
See full document here (couldn’t download from Heritage when I tried). Here’s the text for monetary policy.
Alternative Employment Measures of NFP
CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark.