GDPNow at 5.6% (SAAR), St. Louis Fed “news” nowcast, at -0.25%. Goldman Sachs and BofA at 3.1%…
World Trade Volume Stalls
The Dutch CBP tallies world trade volumes. Here’s the total world trade series, compared to total industrial production (production weighted), since 2000.
Term Spread Watch – Is This Time Different?
A reporter for Marketplace (hear piece at 10 minutes in) asked me today whether this time was different, especially in light of all the positive coincident indicators (Q3 GDPNow has been at 5.6% for a couple weeks; Fed staff has upgraded q4/q4 growth, Goldman Sachs pegs recession probability at 15%). I was (I hope properly) circumspect.
Monthly GDP and Coincident Index
The Brave-Butters-Kelley monthly GDP for June is out. Here’re growth rates of this series compared against the SPGMI (formerly IHS/Markit) monthly GDP, and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, which should track GDP.
Mean and Median Average Hourly Earnings Growth Compared
Anonymous tells a story about an old engineer regaling people with aphorism like “you may know the significant digits but do you know the significance of the number”, in talking about what the average joe is experiencing. Here are some easily calculated numbers showing the distinction between mean and median average hourly earnings (note that median usual weekly earnings are the product of median earnings and median hours worked).
Guest Contribution: “Startups create fewer jobs and do not survive as long as previously reported”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Rob Fairlie Professor of public policy and economics at UCLA.
Close to/at Target Inflation
Instantaneous (Eeckhout, 2023) PCE and CPI inflation.
Arguments about the Output Gap, 2017
Reader JohnH asserts pgl makes up crazy output gaps. My search of Economists View turns up this 2017 exchange. I don’t see a “crazy” assertion by pgl (certainly not as crazy as the Friedman view of a -18% gap), even if it was in disagreement with CBO’s assessment (and Furman’s) at the time, that the economy was near full employment.
What’s the Output Gap? – 2023 Edition
One argument for maintaining tight monetary policy is inflationary pressures — but the question is whether it’s from a positive output gap or cost-push shocks (or expectations). One big question is what is the size of the output gap.
Business Cycle Indicators, as of 9/1
With the employment release, and the monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of key macro indicators.