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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

GDP and “Core GDP” Nowcasts

Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.

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This entry was posted on May 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump Predicts at Least 3% Growth

At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)

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This entry was posted on May 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Despite Upward Revisions, Sentiment Still Looks Pretty Poor

Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.

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This entry was posted on May 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End

Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:

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This entry was posted on May 30, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO

Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?

I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales

As of 2nd release for 2025Q1.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Indicators of GDP Growth

The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak of 3.07%, recording data before “Liberation Day”.

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Furniture Prices Up, Up and Away in April

Can’t wait to see May data.

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Some Stabilization in Economic Confidence

While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls.

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators
  • A Cost-Push Shock?
  • Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
  • Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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