Now that December numbers (released by DWD today) destroy the thesis that half of year-to-date cumulative employment is accounted for by government jobs, will a retraction be forthcoming? Here’s Michael Lucas’ graph running up through November, from this article:
Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse
In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
Productivity, Demand and Manufacturing Employment
Is the decline in manufacturing employment due to trade competition? Insights from a decomposition.
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…
150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread
Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.
“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the figure below.