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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Brent Near Month Futures, 6PM CT

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From NYMEX:

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Prospects for Oil Prices: Supply Shocks vs. “Demand Destruction”

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The Houthis expand control of the Red Sea side of Yemen, threatening remaining Saudi oil exports — and yet prices fall.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Core CPI Upside Surprise and FOMC Odds

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Core CPI m/m came in at +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges

Opening for Assistant Professor of Public Policy (Market-Based Solutions to Societal Challenges)

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise

From U.Michigan, preliminary results for September:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings

Real average hourly earnings:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28

From Treasury:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Heating Oil Prices Rise

From EIA, as of yesterday $4.725/gallon.

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Ten Year Rates Up

Yesterday close, today:

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This entry was posted on September 10, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

High Real Interest Rates Because of Incipient Rapid Growth?

That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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