Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.
Prediction Markets, FWIW
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“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Private NFP Nowcast
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October.
Son of ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy”
Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats:
“Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,
@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been greatly underestimated – read the article by @RonPaul here:
https://t.co/cVroe5QwCT
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
With PCE deflators released today:
Business Cycle Indicators – GDP, Private NFP and Other NBER Key Indicators
GDP under Bloomberg consensus of 3.0% at 2.8% (GDPNow nails it); see Jim’s post yesterday. ADP private NFP change at 233K vs. Bloomberg consensus at 110K. Nominal personal income at consensus, consumption at 0.5% m/m vs. 0.4% consensus.
This plane has landed safely
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%. With inflation coming down, I think we now can declare that the Fed has achieved the admirable but difficult objective of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down without tipping the U.S. into recession.
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Steven Kamin & Benedict Clements: “The Biden-Harris Macroeconomic Record Is Getting a Bum Rap”
From AEI:
Puerto Rico under Trump
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities.
GDP Nowcasts/Tracking Down: What Does This Mean?
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking at 3.0%