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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

That’s the title of an article from yesterday. Maybe, but the drop in consumption spending might be. Also, personal income excluding transfers also decline in May…

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This entry was posted on June 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Dollar Decline and Incipient Inflationary Pressures

Trump has indicated his desire for a weaker dollar. It looks like he’s getting it.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcast Dispersion plus Slowing Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers

From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?

Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from SPGMI and manufacturing and trade industry sales down in April…it’s reasonable to ask whether this is all signaling something.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing Value Added Flat

So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“The International Monetary System, the PBoC and the RMB, Fragmentation & Decoupling, Fragmentation and Inflation”

Those are some of the topic areas of this year’s NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, which took place in Split, Croatia.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”

In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20

NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking:

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This entry was posted on June 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators

With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:

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This entry was posted on June 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

A Cost-Push Shock?

Oil prices jump:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Tariffs in the Data
  • Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
  • WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
  • Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts
  • Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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