The collision of expansionary fiscal policy, slowing growth, and the erosion of policy credibility, particularly since 27 February 2026, suggests … up and high.
Whither Real Rates?
Leave a reply
President Trump, Socialist
from Politico today, Douglas Holtz-Eakin:
Does Slowing AI-Related Imports Mean Slowing Investment?
Maybe:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out:
Sentiment Declines
standardized measures:
Retail Sales Miss
Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop.
Inflation Adjusted Wages, through July
Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
From CBO.
Cost of Living Measures
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI:
Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
CES estimates are for lackluster growth, while the trend in CPS measure is … somewhat worrying.