GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC:
Dollar Dominance No More?
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the dollar as a safe asset/exorbitant privilege. Kamin deploys regressions to support his conclusions:
WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.
What a Difference Two Weeks Makes: NABE Economists on the “Liberation Day” Effect
From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”:
Expectations Continue to Fall Off a Cliff
NY Fed future financial situation “better off” revised up, but continues decline.
Continue reading
Conference: “Global Shocks, Macroeconomic Spillovers and Geopolitical Risks: Policy Challenges” [updated with links]
Here today [update — links to papers and slides]
Policy Uncertainty Remains High Despite Electronics Tariff Respite
Surprise!
Is the Michigan Economic Sentiment Index at Recession Levels? Answer: Yes!
The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03):
Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises.