In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
Is the decline in manufacturing employment due to trade competition? Insights from a decomposition.
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…
Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the figure below.