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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Refined Products Prices Rising, Again

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At least through Monday.

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This entry was posted on July 28, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Reducing Employment Growth

One of the explanations for the “new normal” in employment growth is not deficient aggregate demand, but deficient labor force growth. The  NYT article “Employers Fear Labor Shortage as Many Immigrants Lose Protected Status” lays it out:

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty Spikes around New Section 301 Tariffs

EPU and Trade Policy Uncertainty:

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Estimates of Q2 Chinese GDP

From BOFIT today:

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Back to May, Cost of Living-Wise

According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Up, Up and Away: TIPS Yields

As of today:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Brent above $100

Futures, prediction markets:

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Remembering a Cold War adventure in Portugal”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate. 


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This entry was posted on July 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Don’t Depend on the Foreign Official Sector to Keep on Financing the US CA Deficit

If previous trends hold:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Median Usual Weekly Earnings: When the Deflator Matters

CPI – headline vs. CPI for wage earners and clerical workers:

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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