I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening, and characteristics of those episodes. From the paper:
As of yesterday:
Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much…
As of the 2026Q1 3rd release:
Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:
Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
GDPNow updated downward:
Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered were wide and diverse. The program is here:
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate.