The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
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Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg:
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey:
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation:
The Man Who Would Be Commissioner* [corrected**]
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Mysteries of the CPI Release
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
A Conjectured Sahm Index for November [corrected]
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).
Real Retail Sales Down, Again
From the retail sales release, nominal retail sales in October constant vs. +0.1% m/m Bloomberg consensus. In real terms, they’re down.