The timing seems off to me, as on apparent new news within the last hour (as of 4pm CT)…
Noise?
2 Replies
Eyes on Refined Product Prices
Oil futures jumped on Friday, presumably will again today — but with refining capacity down, the number(s) to watch might be for refined products (given damage to refineries especially in Russia). Here’s Brent futures (black line) vs NY Harbor RBOB gasoline (brown line), for September:
EPU Jumps
As expectations of SoH reopening decline.
AI Capex and Accounting for US GDP Growth
New estimates from Soto, Thieu and Allen:
Crashing Expectations (for Hormuz Reopening by 9/1): 6%
Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1:
Still Gloomy: Consumers in the Michigan Survey
Continued rebound for sample June 23 to July 13 — which largely predates the resumed increase in gasoline prices.
China Macro Indicators, As Reported
Catching up with the news overseas, China downside surprise:
June Temperature Anomaly
For one month, trailing 12 months:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
Along with GDPNow. Industrial production under consensus (+0.1% m/m ov +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), while manufacturing is flat (+0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus).
Kim Ruhl: “Rethinking Free Trade”
That’s the title of an opinion piece in Finance and Development by former CEA member (2025-26) and UW Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl: