It’s already quite low:
Will Consumer Sentiment Take a Hit?
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Betting on US Troops in Iran by Year’s End: 59%
From Polymarket just now:
Betting on Gasoline Prices: $3.50/gal. by Month’s End
Kalshi reports just now:
Oil Prices: Level or Change?
Talking about the Iran war in macro class yesterday, a student asked if the oil price increase seen to date constituted an “oil shock”. I answered, in terms of price increase so far, not yet, and terms of level, oil prices are still fairly low. However, it then occurred to me that there is a intermediate measure, due to Jim Hamilton. First, WTI oil prices:
On Day 5 of War, EPU and GPR Spiked
Somewhat surprisingly, VIX remains relatively low.
Gasoline Prices, 3 March 2026: Thanks, Drumpf!
/s/ owner of internal combustion engine passenger vehicle…
Interpreting 2/27 in Basic IS-LM w/Exogenous Price Shock
From notes for PA854 (before AD-AS chapter), to be discussed tomorrow:
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.
Oil Jumps 13%
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading: