As of NYMEX open:
Brent More Contango-ey
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Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)
I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening, and characteristics of those episodes. From the paper:
Brent in Contango
As of yesterday:
Instantaneous PCE Inflation
Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much…
Four Measures of Output: GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
As of the 2026Q1 3rd release:
June (Final) Consumer Sentiment
Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:
Consensus on Canadian GDP
Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
GDPNow updated downward:
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026
Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered were wide and diverse. The program is here:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-June
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO: