Follow up to this post, quote from Politico, Administration re: Hassett to Fed:
Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d
Leave a reply
Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee), and Jamel Saadaoui (Professor at University of Paris 8 – LED).
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation at 2.6%
Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Confidence Down in November, (preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up in December
U.Mich on December, Gallup on November:
Business Cycle Indicators: Series at or Below Prior Peak
With September personal income and spending, we have new insights into whether we’re close or after the business cycle peak.
Deceleration in Nowcasted Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, GDP [Updated]
National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) on Toilet Paper?
Not literally, but on wood pulp used for TP? Implicitly, SecTreas Bessent is suggesting that if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.
“We can recreate the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the—I think they’re called 122s,” he said, referring to three separate statutory authorities governing trade actions.
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Going Down
Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September).
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives
November ADP data allows us to guesstimate nonfarm payroll employment, while the Fed’s data for industrial and manufacturing production in September gives us more of a reading on September. First, key indicators followed by te NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
ADP Downside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K.