A large portion of GDP growth is accounted for (in a mechanical sense) by capital investment related to AI. What are the prospects for continued spending momentum from this sector, given recent developments in markets?
The view using CBO measures:
Tired of scanning the internet for data pertaining to data releases in this new world? Pawel Skrzypczynski has an extremely useful website compiling latest estimates of data releases, updated continuously. Here’s today’s table:
Conference Board Confidence Index at 88.7 in November, below Bloomberg consensus at 93.5, which was itself below (revised) October reading of 95.5. The November drop is about one standard deviation. Recall, U.Michigan Sentiment was also below consensus.
That’s today on Meet the Press. I agree that it doesn’t look like we’re in a recession now, given the limited amount of current economic data we have; nonetheless what little employment data we have is not that encouraging.
My title for Setser-Sobel in OMFIF, more soberly entitled “It’s time for China to let the renminbi appreciate sharply”:
Even as VIX declines.
This matters more than today’s jobs report or the inflation data when it comes to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions – Powell & Co. have painted themselves into a corner and the only way out is money printer go brrr:
I hear that no government funds (allegedly) were used to fund demolition of the East Wing of the White House (which raises a completely separate legal question of whether donations can be used for government operations), but really, the Administration couldn’t be bothered to call in BLS workers so we would know where the economy was going?
