I don’t have the answer, but the two series do make quite a picture (all in logs since five years ago):
Bubbles or Regime-Switching in Gold and Bitcoin?
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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP
Coincident continues to rise through May, while Bloomberg consensus for NFP growth is for +114K, roughly same growth rate as in May:
Brent More Contango-ey
As of NYMEX open:
Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)
I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening, and characteristics of those episodes. From the paper:
Brent in Contango
As of yesterday:
Instantaneous PCE Inflation
Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much…
Four Measures of Output: GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
As of the 2026Q1 3rd release:
June (Final) Consumer Sentiment
Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:
Consensus on Canadian GDP
Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
GDPNow updated downward: