From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).
US Recession Risk Dashboard
2 Replies
Canadian Tory Recession Call: Beware the Revisions!
From today’s Daily Commercial News,
“A recession has been often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and so on that definition, Canada is in a recession,” [Michael] Chong said.
US Dollar Reserves, US-Iran War +1 Month
From IMF’s COFER:
Visualizing Trump’s Planned EEOB
For those who once worked there:
Current Betting on Re-Opening by 9/1
As of 12:30PM CT on Kalshi:
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025:
The AI Boom: Keep a Watch on (Computer) Imports
Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.
CoRev on Global Climate Change: Might As Well “Lie Back and Enjoy It”
From CoRev comment on global climate change as measured by temperatures:
Imagine: AI Investment Spending Following Dot-Com Boom?
I have no particular expertise in this subject, aside from being around during the dot-com boom (and being a contributor to ERP 2001). Once dot-com related equity prices declined, investment dried up. Bloomberg’s Mag-7 index is now 12.2% below the May 29 peak.
Calling Rick Stryker (and all other Global Climate Change Skeptics of Yore)
Madison’s had a heat advisory in effect for days — like most of the eastern portion of the US. This reminded me of Rick Stryker’s 2014 admonition to dismiss climate change.