Suppose the AI capital investment boom recedes as asset valuations deflate. Some thoughts on implications.
An AI Boom Reversal: Mechanics vs. Economics
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Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Grows
Key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternative indicators:
A List of Cost of Living Reduction Measures
It would be hard to reduce the relevant price level and financing costs, but one could drop the price below the current policy trajectory (based upon this post). Ignoring political feasibility, it’s still useful to know what economic theory and empirics would say works.
Some Costs Facing Households, since 2024: Consumer Items, Housing, Health Premiums
Note that CPI growth accelerates post tariffs, but most profoundly, post-war. Health premiums under ACA have risen.
Maine Senatorial Betting, 10:45PM CT
Odds for Jackson, when 56% vote in, 50.8% vs 49%.
Gasoline and Diesel Price Update, and Brent
As of yesterday, from EIA via FRED:
On the Eve of Escalation
New strikes on Iran tonight, from WSJ:
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Gallup on the Eve of the Election
Decline in Gallup’s October reading.
Naval Deployment as of 11/2/2026
From USNI:
Prediction Markets on the Congressional Balance of Power Odds: Democrats Sweep, 3 to 1
5:30pm CT: