EWS = “Early Warning System”. Jamel Saadaoui has an interesting blogpost, investigating whether the median current account to GDP balance — namely when it becomes very negative, -2% to -4% — presages a global recession as defined by Kose et al. (2020).
Data through yesterday, from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90 pt increase results in a bit less than 2% decline in employment at the one year horizon.
Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30.
Graph for data through 5/30 for Baker, Bloom and Davis index.
Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.
At least it’s mercifully less than the 4% that he promised last time (but 9% is more than last time)
Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”