The abstract of a new paper coauthored with Laurent Ferrara, “Missing Recessions: Revisiting the Term Spread’s Predictive Power”:
The Term Spread and the Case of the Missing 2024 Recession
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Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production Up, Retail Sales Flattish
and Monthly GDP for August, manufacturing production. First, NBER BCDC indicators:
The Cost of Living and Wages
Here are several price indicators for consumers:
Inflation Upside Surprise
September CPI registered upside surprise:
Steve Kamin: Tales from the Dollar-Yield Curve Nexus
From Steve Kamin:
The 2026 economic sciences laureates
From the Sveriges Riksbank:
Judy Shelton @ Treasury
From Bloomberg:
U.Mich. Sentiment Down (Again)
Preliminary at 46.3 < 47.5 Bloomberg consensus with expectations above consensus, and current conditions below. Here’s a picture of indicators, using the Cummings-Tedeschi adjusted U.Michigan series (all series standardized):
Reconciling AI Expected Revenues to CapEx
Jared Bernstein, along with others, calculates the revenues needed to rationalize the AI capital investment in place and planned.
Mr. Trump on the US-Iran War
Speaking at a rally in Nebraska (NYT), regarding the Iranians:
“They could take out a city,” he said. “Let them take — Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego.”