My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday):
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
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“Margaret in Love and War”: An Opera Premiere
7:30pm, at the Leonard Nimoy Thalia at Symphony Space, 2537 Broadway at 95th St. New York:
Composer Laura Schwendinger and librettist Ginger Strand’s opera about Margaret Fuller, a 19th century American journalist and women’s rights advocate, receives its world premiere in a semi-staged production. “Margaret in Love and War” features Marnie Breckenridge in the titular role directed by Chris Alden and a chamber ensemble led by conductor Eiki Isomura.
In 1847, Fuller arrives in Italy at the heart of a revolution. As popular discontent was roiling in Europe, Fuller’s columns for the New York Tribune provide a thrilling account from the front lines. She falls in love with a young revolutionary nobleman and has a child with him before their lives were tragically cut short in a shipwreck.
Updated April Michigan Survey Results
One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points:
One Year Inflation Expectations: A Survey of the Latest
Up, up and away.
Fertilizer Prices in Context
A food crisis in the making. Graph from CSIS, “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts” (22 April 2026).
The Oil Shock in East Asia
From the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, a blog “Asia’s Economic Resilience Is Being Tested by the Energy Shock”, two tables of interest: Oil and natural gas import dependence and intensity.
Five Year Inflation Expectations, April 22
Inflation break-even as of today: 2.61%
Retail Sales Surprise and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Nominal retail sales grew 1.7% m/m, above Bloomberg consensus of 1.4%. With the advance release of sales, and coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed, we have the following picture.
Today’s TACO Tuesday and the Markets
Gallup, U.Michigan, Conference Board Compared, Plus Morning Consult
Standardized indicators: