New strikes on Iran tonight, from WSJ:
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On the Eve of Escalation
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Gallup on the Eve of the Election
Decline in Gallup’s October reading.
Naval Deployment as of 11/2/2026
From USNI:
Prediction Markets on the Congressional Balance of Power Odds: Democrats Sweep, 3 to 1
5:30pm CT:
Nasdaq Correction
As of today’s close, Nasdaq down 10%, S&P500 4%, from prior peak.
Recession in France?
A statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) on 10/29/2026 (original communique in French), by way of Laurent Ferrara (Chair), and secretariatafse@gmail.com.
Friday AI Fallout
Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week.
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Sales, Consumption
GDP is up as Jim discussed. Consumption flat, personal income ex-transfers down. Nominal consumption and income both below consensus by 0.1% m/m.
U.S. GDP grows more in Q3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. That is a little above the historical average growth of 3.1% and better than the numbers we’d been seeing over the last three quarters.
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Guest Contribution: “Europe, the US, and China: Comparing Geoeconomic Size”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for excellent research assistance.