“Participants provide quick overviews of how the US’s current conflict with Iran affects energy supplies, relations in the Middle East, and economic stability.”
Part of “International Organizations and You” flash talks at UW Madison Law School, sponsored by the Global Legal Studies Center. This talk organized by Tana Johnson (Public Affairs).
Adding in IMF WEO projections, as well as nowcasts/tracking:
Out today; first, the IMF’s reference scenario:
From NYT, an interactive guest essay by Clifford Winston:
From AIER today:
AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly increase back to January 2020 (the first was an increase of 2.9 percent in March 2022). Of the 24 price categories that compose the EPI, fourteen rose, two were unchanged, and eight declined. Unsurprisingly, the largest jumps in price occurred in motor fuel, housing fuels and utilities, and food away from home. Prescription drugs, internet services, and food at home declined the most. (The juxtaposition of price changes in the food away from home versus food at home categories likely reflects the gasoline pass-through of food delivery service costs.)
Using Cleveland Fed nowcast for PCE.
From CENTCOM:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.
The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
…
Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower in the last 15 years, suggesting a trend decrease; the “vibecession” talk of 2024 is part of that phenomenon.
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
