June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which is still rising, along with personal income).
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).
Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.
As of today:
Various observers (e.g. Furman) have argued for final sales to private domestic purchasers as the best measure of economic momentum. Nowcasts and tracking estimates of this indicator cast into doubt prospects for rapid growth.
There’s not much data on individual central bank holdings of the dollar through 2023, but COFER goes through 2024Q4, and gold holdings through 2025Q1.
From reputable studies, that is. CEA concludes in its report on the OBBB:
$1.3 to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction from higher growth unleashed by enhanced deregulation and energy policies