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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

The Petroleum and Petroleum Products Balance

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From NIPA accounts:

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This entry was posted on August 27, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

US-Canada Oil & Gas Trade

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From Census via ITA:

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This entry was posted on August 27, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn

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Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.

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This entry was posted on August 27, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Where Does the US (and Wisconsin*) Get Its Oil From?

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Canada!

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This entry was posted on August 27, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

“Core GDP” Upwardly Revised

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Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place.

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators: Real Consumption Is Flat

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Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak.

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The U.S. Household-Income Cycle and the Motio Rule”

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Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria of Motio Research, an independent research firm focused on measuring and analyzing U.S. household income. 


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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene: Diesel Rises Again

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From the EIA:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

What the Heck Is “Structural Excess Capacity”?

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The US is going to expand the trade war against a whole slew of countries, using Section 301 charging “structural excess capacity”, caused by government intervention. China is up on the block, according Bloomberg:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

August Consumer Confidence Downside Surprise

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Conference Board indicator registers decline relative to downwardly revised July confidence:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • The Petroleum and Petroleum Products Balance
  • US-Canada Oil & Gas Trade
  • Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn
  • Where Does the US (and Wisconsin*) Get Its Oil From?
  • “Core GDP” Upwardly Revised

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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