In a previous post, I noted that the February CBO projection of debt would likely be an underestimate, and perhaps increasingly so over time, suggesting upward pressure on rates.
Why the February CBO Baseline Debt Will Be Off
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“From Bust to Boom: Stock Market Participation and the Housing Boom”
That’s the title of a paper by Yanshuo Chen, (PhD, UCSC):
Who Holds Federal Debt As of March 30
Let’s hope foreign non-official sector wants to hold on to US government debt.
Where Should the 10 Year Treasury Rate Be?
Debt issuance is rising, foreign official holdings of Treasurys are falling, the Fed is reducing holdings, and expected inflation is rising. How well do we predict rates?
The Change in 10 Year Yields: Up, Up and Away
Treasurys and TIPS, 70 and 46 bps respectively.
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Adventures in Conditional Forecasting
CEA Chair (Acting) Pierre Yared (NYT):
Mortgage Rates and Fuel Costs SitRep
Over the past year, as of data available today:
Deficit, Debt w/o the OBBBA
As Treasury yields jump, changes in fiscal policy come into scrutiny. By comparing the Feb 2026 to January 2025 CBO baselines, and isolating changes due to legislation, one can identify the impact on deficits and debt arising from the changes in current law.
Yield Curves under Trump 2.0
Reversing the pattern of declining curves, the curve has steepened since the War’s start.
Why Are Oil Prices So Low?
The odds of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening by July 1st is at all time lows; and yet the front month (July) Brent is at only $111.