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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

PCE Inflation in September

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Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus:

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This entry was posted on October 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Motio September Median Real Household Income: Slight Recovery

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From Motio Research:

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This entry was posted on October 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

EconVitals: Key Macro Indicators Gathered

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This is the new “go to” website, from Jason Furman (former Chair, CEA; professor at Kennedy School, nonresident fellow at PIIE):

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This entry was posted on October 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Front Month Brent Futures near 2022 Peak Level

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Over $116/bbl.

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This entry was posted on October 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Forward Price Earnings Ratios

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Looking pretty good — although one needs to wonder about analysts’ estimates of forward earnings…

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This entry was posted on October 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Weekly Earnings Down in Q3

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Overall, for HS graduates:

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This entry was posted on October 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Jet Fuel Prices Up

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Then, when next you fly; or ship something high value from abroad. From EIA (thru 10/9):

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This entry was posted on October 20, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Insurance for AI Hyperscaler Debt, et al.

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From FT yesterday:
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This entry was posted on October 20, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wall Street Expectations for Treasury Yields: Higher for Longer

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From the October WSJ survey:

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This entry was posted on October 18, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasts and WEO, WSJ Forecasts

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Recent releases:

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This entry was posted on October 18, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • PCE Inflation in September
  • Motio September Median Real Household Income: Slight Recovery
  • EconVitals: Key Macro Indicators Gathered
  • Front Month Brent Futures near 2022 Peak Level
  • Forward Price Earnings Ratios

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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