If you were curious:
Commerce Bureau of Industry and Security Search Screenshot
Leave a reply
CRFB Tracks the Administration’s Forecasts So You Don’t Have To
It’s not pretty (CRFB):
“The Whites of Their Eyes”
CEA Chair Phelan on the need for a 50 bps increase in the Fed funds rate, given the hot CPI readings today, contra Waller and Logan (Bloomberg):
CPI Upside Surprise
High relative to Bloomberg consensus , +0.4% vs. +0.3% m/m for headline, +0.3 vs. +0.2% for core:
Naval Deployment as of 11/9
Theodore Roosevelt CSG en route, Boxer ARG nearing the region:
Furman and FRB/US on the AI Boom’s Impact
Jason Furman has put up a macro simulator based on the FRB/US model. Today, he traces out the model’s implications regarding the AI boom.
Feasible Cost of Living Reduction
Today, in “Democrats Promised to Fix the Economy. What Can They Really Do?” (WSJ), Grossman, Whalen and Bade argue that Democrats can do very little to lower the cost of living.
Interest Sensitive and Insensitive Investment and the Two Speed Economy
Aggregate nonresidential investment has surged despite elevated interest rates. The aggregate conceals the mixed.
Equities Held by Households, 2000 and Now
Estimates for 2026Q2, Q3, compared to 2000.
An AI Boom Reversal: Mechanics vs. Economics
Suppose the AI capital investment boom recedes as asset valuations deflate. Some thoughts on implications.