According to data released today; here are alternative business cycle indicators:
Retail Sales Rebound
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PPI and CPI, Again
On Monday, Justin Ho on Marketplace had a piece on producer prices. He covered several interesting questions, including the implications of a PPI rising faster than the CPI:
Monthly GDP Drops for Two Consecutive Months
S&P Global Markets Insights monthly GDP (formerly IHS, Macroeconomic Advisers) online today. Here is monthly GDP againnst other NBER BCDC measures:
Ordinary Folk Stats in June: Cost-of-Living, Groceries, Utilities
Real wages down from February,
CPI Release and PCE Nowcasts
Inflation down, below consensus, but we’re still above pre-War trend:
How Much Is the Stock Market Boom Fueling Consumption?
In 2025, about half of observed consumption, according to Bigot and Espic (BdF):
GDP’s Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The WSJ July survey is out:
The Sustainability of AI Investment amidst High Interest Rates
One of the mysteries of recent macro history is why tightening monetary policy failed to significantly slow economic activity, particularly capital investment. For instance, even as the Fed funds rate rose, nonnresidential fixed investment rose throughout 2022-23.
Some Thoughts on “Five Facts about the Uncovered Interest Parity Premium”
That’s the title of a fascinating paper By Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Liliana Varela that I had the opportunity to discuss at the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics (Stockholm, June 24-25).
Canadian Employment Upside Surprise
From StatCan today, employment reverses May decline, rises 18.2K vs 11.2K Bloomberg consensus. The employment sitrep as of today’s release: