Here’s in the context of other alternative business cycle indicators:
Freight Transportation Services Index Revised Down, Rising in April
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“…it will all work out well in the end – It always does!”: Oil Edition
Trump statement today. In other news, from Kalshi, 12:30pm CT:
Price Indices and Expectations of the Price Level
Will people think things will get back to normal soon, per NEC Chair Hassett (fm ABC News)?
“Well, look, in the end, people look at their wallets and they decide how to vote, and if they look at their wallets and look at how much money they have after the increase in prices, they’re going to find that they have a lot more money.”
Hassett did acknowledge high energy prices are causing a pinch but said he was hopeful that would subside soon.
“That’s extremely frustrating, and it’s something that we’re working on doing lots of different things to minimize the disruption, and hopefully again the problem of the Gulf will be over soon, and then things will go back to normal.”
I’m dubious. Expectations incorporated into a graph of the price level (in logs):
Guest Contribution: “Americans can’t afford Trump’s inflationary policies”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.
Recession in Germany? Determination by Organization vs. by Prediction Market
Consider Germany over the last five years:
Trump Dithers and Betting on Re-Opening by July 1st Crashes
Not quite the lowest odds ever, but pretty close; betting odds have retraced to just before “imminent” (and as low as ever recorded).
Canada: Imminent Recession?
The release of Q1 GDP pushed growth to a very slight negative number (-0.1% vs Bloomberg consensus +1.5% q/q AR), after a downwardly revised Q4 print. Lots of skeptical commentary regarding an imminent recession call based on this number, from professional economists (BN Bloomberg). Here’s GDP:
Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of the post). This list seems relevant as Canada records two consecutive quarters of negative growth, French Q1 growth is revised to a small negative, and one Q2 nowcast for Euro Area is negative as of today. ECRI, a common source for business cycle chronologies, has not to my knowledge declared a turning point since the end of the pandemic-related recessions.
Peak in Personal Income ex-Transfers: September 2025 or January 2026?
The latest release shifted the peak in real personal income excluding current transfers — a key indicator followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee — from January 2026 to September 2025, and changed the q/q annualized growth rate through March from -0.7% to -1.3%.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment: