Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release.
Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll
Leave a reply
Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP?
Employment seems to be growing very slowly, if not shrinking, while output (measured with lots of noise) seems to be rising, into Q3. Would NBER ever determine a recession occurred when GDP was rising?
US Naval Deployment, December 1, 2025
From USNI:
Guest Contribution: “How will unsustainable US debt end?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.* A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
Alles ist verloren…
一切都結束了, 所有都失去咗 or whatever language you want to put it in. Bloomberg: “Trump Says He Has Made His Choice to Lead the Federal Reserve”. As of 8pm CT today:
ADP Weekly Employment thru 11/8
From ADP via Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Private Credit, AI, and Financial Stability
Private credit, lending from nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs), has been on the rise:
Small Firm Employment Falls Again
Private NFP continues to be sustained by large firm hiring.
High Frequency Readings on Economic Growth
Growth has decelerated by about half a percentage point since Liberation Day.
Clifford Winston: “Market Corrections Not Government Interventions”
That’s the title of a new book (Palgrave MacMillan) by Clifford Winston, Senior Nonresident Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings.
