Today, at Goethe University, from the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability:
“The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI”
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Naval Deployment as of March 23
From USNI.
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Talking about the dollar, Trump, and stupidity as an exogenous variable, next couple of days…
Guest Contribution: “Is Immigration Bad for America?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim.
Nowcasts and Forecasts
Nowcasts are typically below pre-war forecasts.
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today:
Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months:
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS:
Regular Folk Prices
Courtesy of BLS, AIER, and (for nowcast) Cleveland Fed. Prepare for impact.
Brent-Urals Spread Today:
Urals way up, to $92.4