The term spread is positive in Canada through September. But the term spread signaled recession for 2024 (which some had predicted). What can we take from this, regarding recession probabilities?
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus:
This is the new “go to” website, from Jason Furman (former Chair, CEA; professor at Kennedy School, nonresident fellow at PIIE):
Over $116/bbl.
Looking pretty good — although one needs to wonder about analysts’ estimates of forward earnings…
Overall, for HS graduates:
Then, when next you fly; or ship something high value from abroad. From EIA (thru 10/9):
From FT yesterday:
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From the October WSJ survey: