standardized measures:
Sentiment Declines
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Retail Sales Miss
Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop.
Inflation Adjusted Wages, through July
Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
From CBO.
Cost of Living Measures
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI:
Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
CES estimates are for lackluster growth, while the trend in CPS measure is … somewhat worrying.
Private NFP Growth Deceleration
+30K < +78K Bloomberg consensus.
Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI Decelerates
Based on weekly releases, through 8/1.
Private NFP from ADP
+44K vs. +68K per Bloomberg consensus.
Oil Slumps on Expectations that Trump Surrenders: And That’s a Good Thing (Relatively Speaking)
That’s the only way to think about it: We go from free navigation on the Strait of Hormuz on February 27 to de facto Iranian control on inbound shipping.