Speaking at a rally in Nebraska (NYT), regarding the Iranians:
“They could take out a city,” he said. “Let them take — Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego.”
Mr. Trump on the US-Iran War
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The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months. Taking into account early benchmark, it’s not changing the picture too much.
The Term Spread As Recession Predictor, Post-2024
Using a plain vanilla term spread model (spread, short rate), what remains? From notes for tomorrow’s lecture.
Business Cycle Indicators: Real GDP, Personal Income Trajectory Revised Up
Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator. Here are the key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Strategic Petroleum Reserves through 9/18
From EIA:
Diesel up 67.5% Relative to Pre-War
From the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update:
Confidence Slips (Way) Below Consensus
Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.
Yields Up (Again), Yield Curve Steepening
As of today’s close:
Bond Yields: Two Pictures
Over 5.2%:
Guest Contribution: “Oligarchy is a Symptom, Not the Cause”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.