Following further on Jim’s assessment on slow but steady headline GDP growth, core GDP growth remains strong. But GDP growth relies on AI related investment spending.
Michigan final sentiment and Conference Board confidence near pre War levels. But still 2.2 to 2.4 standard deviations below pre Trump. Gallup confidence 1.1 standard deviations below.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That is about half of the historical average growth of 3.1% and continues a record of slow growth over the last three quarters.
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Approximately, as we don’t have direct observations on items solely related to AI.
Following up on Jim’s GDP asssessment, here’re NBER BCDC indicators plus alternatives. Consumption growth remains strong,
TIPS 30 year yields up 55 bps since the War’s start; 10 year up 69 bps.
Any hints on where AI related imports are going, given capital goods imports?
From Cancian and Park at CSIS on 27 July:
Brent front month future back to $90, as SoH reopening down, Bab el Mandeb traffic estimates down … a bit before 8am CT.
At least through Monday.