Friday’s jump in 10 year Treasury yields (10 bps), and the 30 year yield nearing 5% alarmed markets. But why?
Debt and the debt trajectory are up. Fed Chair Designate Warsh wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet, even as Trump continues his assault on Fed independence. And don’t expect the foreign sector to rush in to help…
One of the reasons why the impact of higher gasoline prices might be muted relative to the past is the increased fuel efficiency of US autos, in small part due to a higher share of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles in the US fleet. It could’ve been larger.
Lots of gushing praise by President Trump of President Xi. Not so much from Xi. I’d characterize this as anything but tough talk from the US side. Continue reading
For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%.
although they over-estimated in 2023-24.
As of close today, nominal yields are up 0.62%, real up 0.38% since the beginning of the war.
We’ve had a record low in the U.Michigan consumer sentiment in May (prel.). Given real aggregate output measures are rising smartly (see this post), why is sentiment so low? Has there been a structural break?
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today:
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow.
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).