Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Employment Growth Has Flatlined (If We’re Optimistic)
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How Fast Can Trump Destroy US Exorbitant Privilege?
Treasury 10 year and VIX, as of 4pm CT today:
WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDP
While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some downside risks.
WSJ Economic Survey: The GDP Trajectory
Compared against CBO, GS tracking:
Economic Consequences of IEEPA Tariff Strikedown
In Trump 2.0, most tariffs were imposed under IEEPA. With the Supreme Court perceived to be on the verge of ruling the tariffs unconstitutional, it’s of interest to see what the implications would be.
Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
From X today:
Groceries Rose 9% m/m (annualized) in December
Reported hits the September USDA Economic Research Service forecast. Figure 1 displays the food-at-home component of the CPI, along with ERS forecasts:
Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
Responses to DoJ probe: An event study.