If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you might not be imagining it (although one would be very hard pressed to show it’s a statistically significant difference). To see this, compare against the ADP measure.
From inflation breakevens, estimated:
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:
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If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not.
Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED:
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late.
ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down.
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start.
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today:
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index…