From EconoFact today:
EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”
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ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to 0.71 (based on ADP data). Here’s what I got for forecasts of September and October private NFP as reported by BLS:
Some Business Cycle Observables [updated]
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization [correction: no G.17 release h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński ].
Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days
Per Kalshi, on 10/18 noon CT. At this rate, we miss Metro area Employment/Unemployment, Consumer Expenditures, Employment Cost Index, Business Employment Dynamics, September JOLTS, Productivity and Costs, October Employment Situation releases on their scheduled dates.
US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
Hard to assess, since we don’t know how much was blown.
IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend:
Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025:
Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh, the humanity!
Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.