Apropos of nothing except current (financial system) events (Fall teaching), some pictures to elicit thoughts.
Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today:
From NIPA accounts:
From Census via ITA:
Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.
Canada!
Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place.
Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak.
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria of Motio Research, an independent research firm focused on measuring and analyzing U.S. household income.
From the EIA: