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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Wisconsin Dairy Hit With Retaliatory Tariffs:

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From Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association:

On August 25, Canada announced a broad set of retaliatory tariffs, hitting U.S. dairy hard. Our northern neighbor announced that as of September 8, U.S. cheese entering Canada will face a 25 percent tariff, while milk products, cream, and whey products will see a 50 percent tariff.

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Marginal Efficiency of Investment Equation Interpreted in 2024-26

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In the IS-LM equation, we have the investment function:

 

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty: Economic and Trade

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Through yesterday:

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This entry was posted on September 8, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Who Will We Trade With If the Fed Doesn’t Lower Rates?

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At least according to Trump:

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

The Blackest Black Box Mid-Session Review Ever

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I was looking to see what the Administration’s Mid-Session Review economic forecast looked like. Alas, courtesy of Jared Bernstein, I am disappointed. Did Vought et al. purge all the economists from the CEA, Treasury and OMB? The MSR:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

August Real Average Hourly Earnings Nowcasted

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With August hourly earnings and nowcasted August CPI:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators: CES/CPS Employment Surges

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Evidence of continued growth:

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Exports under Trump

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Down, under Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0:

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Looking at What Used To Be EJ Antoni’s Favorite Household Finances Indicator

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Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

A Dropoff in Manufacturing Employment?

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From the ADP release:

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This entry was posted on September 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Core CPI Surprise and FOMC Odds
  • UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges
  • Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise
  • The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings
  • Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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