In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
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Mid-October Reading on Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC and Alternatives
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here’s the resulting two pictures, first one for those indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, and the second one alternatives.
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
WSJ October Survey: GDP On the Rise
Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Gasoline and Oil Prices
As of Mid October for Gasoline:
September Real Median Household Income Estimated
Above Pre-Covid peak. From Motio Research:
Inflation: A Discussion in Milwaukee
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held today, Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here. American Press Institute/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Wisconsin Public Radio/Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. Livestreamed here.
Chatting about math with ChatGPT
I’m still trying to learn how to use ChatGPT to improve my productivity. One thing I’ve been experimenting with recently is to ask it to check my math. As it turns out, I’m still better at math than the algorithm. Here is a link to a recent discussion I had with ChatGPT. My entries are the short strongly indented statements. In this little conversation, ChatGPT made six separate math errors. Each time it confidently asserted something to be true when in fact it was provably false, and each time it would cheerfully admit its error when I pointed it out.
My recommendation is to keep ChatGPT on a short leash. Don’t ask it anything you can’t directly confirm yourself.
Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.