Michigan November final almost as low at June 2025:
Consumer Sentiment in November: Near Record Low
Leave a reply
Manufacturing in September
BLS measures (employment, hours) are down through September.
EJ Antoni Continues to See a Vast Conspiracy at BLS
From EJ Antoni on X today:
Not even hiding it anymore – since when is a 119k increase just “edging up”? And since when is a 193k increase “little change”? They mentioned Apr b/c that’s when Trump announced tariffs; whether you’re for or against Trump’s trade policies, this is obviously a biased narrative:
Cumulative Percent Growth in Private NFP from BLS, ADP Compared
From the latest release:
Updated Business Cycle Indicators, Including Employment
Incorporating employment (including implied benchmark NFP):
Business Cycle Indicators and Nowcasts
Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release date (and +22K in August). Here are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
SP500 and Bitcoin: Past Peak?
As of today’s close:
Rejoinder to Comments on House Price Affordability
In commenting on my post yesterday on house affordability, Bruce Hall brings my attention to this Supermoney article by Andrew Latham, which states:
…the price per square foot has remained pretty stable [from 1978?] right until 2020. Look at the price per square foot (inflation-adjusted) for new homes in the graph below.
Grampa Simpson on Whining Whiners about House Affordability
To quote:
We read much about how housing is now “unaffordable”, but is that true?
We bought a 2300 sf home in 1979 with a 10.5% mortgage interest rate (a step up from our 1200 sf starter home). It was a bit of a strain, but our second child was on the way so we bit the bullet. Now it seems that this generation whines about housing being unaffordable and wants the government to “do something” about it.
Taylor (1999) on Miran (2025)
Really, a 50 bps drop in the Fed funds rate in December? What does a Taylor rule say?