This matters more than today’s jobs report or the inflation data when it comes to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions – Powell & Co. have painted themselves into a corner and the only way out is money printer go brrr:
I hear that no government funds (allegedly) were used to fund demolition of the East Wing of the White House (which raises a completely separate legal question of whether donations can be used for government operations), but really, the Administration couldn’t be bothered to call in BLS workers so we would know where the economy was going?
Michigan November final almost as low at June 2025:
BLS measures (employment, hours) are down through September.
From EJ Antoni on X today:
Not even hiding it anymore – since when is a 119k increase just “edging up”? And since when is a 193k increase “little change”? They mentioned Apr b/c that’s when Trump announced tariffs; whether you’re for or against Trump’s trade policies, this is obviously a biased narrative:
From the latest release:
Incorporating employment (including implied benchmark NFP):
Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release date (and +22K in August). Here are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
As of today’s close:
In commenting on my post yesterday on house affordability, Bruce Hall brings my attention to this Supermoney article by Andrew Latham, which states:
…the price per square foot has remained pretty stable [from 1978?] right until 2020. Look at the price per square foot (inflation-adjusted) for new homes in the graph below.
