In response to my summary for 2022 and argument that it was unlikely that 2022H1 would be called a recession, Mr. Steven Kopits writes: So, for H1: 3. Civilian employment was flat to down Well, it pays to look at actual data before pontificating.
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
A cautionary tale for my undergraduate economics students
Reader Steven Kopits wonders why, in order to show the relative prominence of government spending, I don’t merely take the ratio of one real index to another real index. Specifically, he admonishes me:
I find this presentation confusing. … Is it not possible to present this data as a simple percent of GDP?
Quick links to a few items I found of interest:
We’re pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on lessons to be learned from the BP oil disaster.
We’re pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on the EIA’s oil demand outlook.
Today Econbrowser is pleased to host this guest contribution from Steven Kopits, who heads the New York office of Douglas-Westwood, energy business consultants.
Reader Steven Kopits writes: Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that we were in recession, to wit, Steven Kopits, January 2, 2023: