For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators, Relative to January 2023
New Deal Democrat suggests normalizing on 2023M01 instead of to 2022M11. Here’re the NBER BCDC indicators, plus monthly GDP, as well as a slew of others, since then.
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start: Where’s the Recession?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth far exceeded consensus, at 339K vs 180K. With April’s monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP):
Guest Contribution: “Solving Western Water Shortages”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“Fiscal Recovery Act of 2023”: Macro Impact, Micro Evidence
Cost of Energy Production from Wind, Over Time
A reader asks “what’s changed over 11 years” in defending citation of a blogpost from 2012.
Capture and Ideology, Debt Ceiling Edition
In my first published peer-reviewed article, Peter Navarro and I argued that both economic special interests and candidate ideology separately could explain Congressional voting farm subsidies (we also applied the framework to domestic content legislation for automobiles), following Kalt and Zupan (AER 1984). In the ongoing discussions of how many members of the Republican caucus would vote for the (yet to be released) debt ceiling bill, I wondered how one would test the separate effects.
Aggregate Demand vs. Income: Sometimes an Important Distinction
Going back to intro macro, remember when we quickly impose the equilibrium condition Y=AD? What does it mean that Y doesn’t equal AD? Here’s a quick reminder.
Conflicting Signals for Coincident Macro Indicators at End-May
Monthly indicators of employment, consumption, personal income (ex-transfers) are all rising in April. But GDO and GDP+ show a decline for 2022Q4 and 2023Q1.