Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
FT-Booth School June Survey of Macroeconomists: Recession Start in 2024
2023 q4/q4 growth relatively unchanged. Modal guess for recession start date moved to 2024Q1-Q2 (survey results here; FT article).
Almost Three Quarters of a Century of the Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Model
If you were interested.
Plain Vanilla Term Spread Model Based Recession Probabilities
Here is a picture of recession probabilities from probit regressions on 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spreads, in light of Cam Harvey’s updated views.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: Downturn Delayed (but Not Erased)
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.
SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth
“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok:
The Budget Balance to GDP Ratio: Actual & Cyclically Adjusted
From CBO today:
Forecasts vs. Nowcasts and the Receding Downturn
The pattern of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past three quarters suggests a receding downturn. Today’s Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 seems to confirm that no downturn occurred in 2023Q2.