Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Wisconsin Economic Indicators Diverge
The labor market looks stronger than GDP.
Last GDPNow of the Year
And other forecasts and nowcasts:
Why I Don’t Cheer the Soft Landing (Yet)
In early 2001 (April or May) I was on staff at CEA, and recall a conversation where I was assured there’d be no recession, given the latest data available. So, with all the data I’ve recapped, remember, the data will be revised (and GDP in particular will be revised, over and over again).
PCE Inflation: Instantaneous below Target
Year-on-Year PCE inflation (3.2% in November) is a standard; here’s instantaneous headline and core for comparison (and trimmed mean y/y through October):
Income, Consumption, Manufacturing and Trade Industry Sales and the Measured Business Cycle
Income and consumption m/m growth at consensus. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook (Updated for Employment Release)
Yesterday, the Wisconsin macro outlook was reviewed in the context of the November Economic Forecast released by the DoR. Today, we can update the picture, using the newly released employment numbers (piece on WPR today).
NBER BCDC Indicators, Some Alternative Indicators, and Weekly Measures Through Mid-December
As of mid-December, it’s hard to see the recession (even with this morning’s downward revision of GDP growth to 4.9%) so there’s a lot of triumphalism about how the oft-predicted recession of 2023. We only have monthly data through November at best, so perhaps it’s still a little premature to declare victory for 2023 — but only a little. For 2024, these concurrent indicators are of little help.
Sentiment by Survey and Text Analysis, Updated!
Today, the Confidence Board’s consumer confidence index clocked in at 110.7, vs. Bloomberg consensus of 103.8. The Michigan survey of consumer sentiment and to a lesser extent the Conference Board survey of confidence have diverged from their historical correlation with inflation and unemployment. Interestingly, while the Michigan measure in particular has deviated from the text based measure, they have both now started reverting toward the text based measure.
The Macroeconomic Outlook in Wisconsin
Biden is visiting Wisconsin. it’s interesting to see how the state economy is doing, and what the Evers administration is forecasting (based primarily on national macro developments).