Interest rates down:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Real Wage Growth – Mean and Median
With the labor market release, we have a new read on real wage growth.
The October Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators at November’s Start [updated]
October NFP employment came in at 150K (below consensus 180K), private NFP at 99K (vs 158K consensus). Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with S&PGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Mr. Johnson’s Modest* Conjecture for Saving Social Security
By happenstance, I was covering the challenges facing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds in my course on Wednesday. On that same day, Mr. Michael Johnson became the new Speaker of the House. In the past, he has provided an implied solution. From Newsweek:
“We are in a soft recession right now”
That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
NIPA-Based Alternative Measures of Economic Welfare
From BEA, median equivalized personal income, and net domestic product.
Requiem for a Technocrat
From NY Times, on the passing of former premier Li Keqiang:
Inflation Persistence in the Pandemic Era
(Following up on discussion on Marketplace on Tuesday.) Month-on-Month services inflation after January 2020 is more persistent than nondurable goods inflation (0.68 vs. 0.38). And services core inflation ex-housing is less persistent, at 0.50.
Real Wage Growth and Inflation Prospects
On MarketPlace with Justin Ho, yesterday. I remarked that wage growth (on a 12 month basis) still outstripping inflation.
GDP in Q3: Relative to Nowcasts, and Alternative Estimates
GDP surges, at 4.9%, compared to 4.3% Bloomberg consensus, and 5.4% from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (It’s about a point less than the seemingly over-optimistic GDPNow of two month’s ago (8/24)). Jim’s post yesterday discusses the implications for recession calls, as well as for the macrostabilization (inflation reduction to target). Here’s a picture of where the advance estimate placed GDP, relative to nowcasts and forecasts.