Real defense spending is higher than at the Reagan buildup, but is (much) lower as a ratio of real GDP.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Stays the Course”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Timing: CHIPS Act or Military Keynesianism and the Manufacturing Building Boom
Reader JohnH, on considering the timing of the boom in manufacturing structures investment, writes:
Treasury Yield Forecasts and Projections: CBO vs. Economists’ Consensus
CBO above market?
Structures Investment Booms (esp. in Manufacturing)
From the advance release:
GDP, GDO, GDP+
GDP is only one measure of income. Following up on Jim’s post on GDP (and housing), here are others.
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Here’s a picture of the series the NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP.
CBO Projection Defers the Downturn
CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook Update is just released:
A Search for a Phillips Curve in China
I wondered whether Chinese inflation behavior was anomalous. Answering that question depends critically on (1) what model you believe in, (2) what you believe the model parameters are, (3) what you think the input values are, and (4) whether you think the model has been stable over time. Here’s one answer.