From BEA, median equivalized personal income, and net domestic product.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Requiem for a Technocrat
From NY Times, on the passing of former premier Li Keqiang:
Inflation Persistence in the Pandemic Era
(Following up on discussion on Marketplace on Tuesday.) Month-on-Month services inflation after January 2020 is more persistent than nondurable goods inflation (0.68 vs. 0.38). And services core inflation ex-housing is less persistent, at 0.50.
Real Wage Growth and Inflation Prospects
On MarketPlace with Justin Ho, yesterday. I remarked that wage growth (on a 12 month basis) still outstripping inflation.
GDP in Q3: Relative to Nowcasts, and Alternative Estimates
GDP surges, at 4.9%, compared to 4.3% Bloomberg consensus, and 5.4% from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (It’s about a point less than the seemingly over-optimistic GDPNow of two month’s ago (8/24)). Jim’s post yesterday discusses the implications for recession calls, as well as for the macrostabilization (inflation reduction to target). Here’s a picture of where the advance estimate placed GDP, relative to nowcasts and forecasts.
“Consumer spending is up, saving is down. What does this mean for the economy?”
That’s the title of today’s segment on WPR’s Central Time, where I was the Dean Knetter’s guest. In my view, the reason why the economy has proved so durable thus far is in large part attributable to the resilience of the consumer, buoyed by Covid era transfer payments. With the path of disposable income higher than thought just a month ago, consumption has been higher, and — with the saving rate lower in the context of a tight labor market — the cushion of “excess savings” larger.
Does the Confidence Index Say We’re in a Recession?
Title of last Conference Board post on the index reads: “Expectations Index Declined for the Second Straight Month, Sinking Back Below Recession Threshold”. Here’s a picture of this index, compared against the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.
Guest Contribution: “China’s Great Leap Backward”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The author thanks Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
More on China Q3 GDP
BOFIT calculations (based on Kerola (2019)) indicate a slower pace of growth than officially reported. Year-on-Year, the simple average of alternative calculations is less than 4%, compared to the 4.9% officially reported (which is at the top of the range of growth rates from the alternative calculations).
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Elasticities and Product Sophistication”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.