Reader Bruce Hall argues that “With the exception of travel related and luxury related items, the monthly adjustments[to the CPI] tend to be relatively minor…”. I beg to differ.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Dimitrios Kanelis (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Müun) and Pierre Siklos, (Wilfrid Laurier University and CAMA at ANU). The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Why Friends Shouldn’t Let Friends Mix and Match Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Unadjusted Data in Calculating Changes
Reader Bruce Hall comments in his defense of calculating an 18 month change using not seasonally adjusted CPI data, and then 6 months of seasonally adjusted data:
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Calculate 18 Month Not-Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates
Bruce Hall seems to think calculating 18 month inflation rates (either annualized or not) is just fine. It is just fine. As long as you don’t do it using not-seasonally-adjusted data. If you do that, you really should be clear. Illustrative example for CPI below.
Services Inflation – Some Data
CPI services, services ex-energy, core services ex-shelter, vs. core and core commodities.
A Re-Post of a Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 1/14/2023
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 1/14/2023, released yesterday.
“…Beneath the Stock Market’s Surface”
A Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
“Inflation begins to slow, signaling lower costs for consumers”
My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]