Reader Bruce Hall comments in his defense of calculating an 18 month change using not seasonally adjusted CPI data, and then 6 months of seasonally adjusted data:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Calculate 18 Month Not-Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rates
Bruce Hall seems to think calculating 18 month inflation rates (either annualized or not) is just fine. It is just fine. As long as you don’t do it using not-seasonally-adjusted data. If you do that, you really should be clear. Illustrative example for CPI below.
Services Inflation – Some Data
CPI services, services ex-energy, core services ex-shelter, vs. core and core commodities.
A Re-Post of a Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 1/14/2023
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 1/14/2023, released yesterday.
“…Beneath the Stock Market’s Surface”
A Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
“Inflation begins to slow, signaling lower costs for consumers”
My colleague Kenneth West did a long interview on inflation, interest rates, and recession, on Wisconsin Public Radio’s Central Time on Monday [audio]
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2023
With the release of December 2022 industrial production (-0.7% vs. -0.1 Bloomberg consensus, m/m), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
Recession Tales from the WSJ January Survey?
Here’s the outlook for GDP: