From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
How Much Have (Ex Ante) Real Rates Risen?
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:
Calling Graduate Students of the 1980’s…
I found this Bloomberg article about the exhaustion of pandemic-benefits related savings of interest and the coming consumption crash of interest.
Recession Probabilities (using data through end-2022)
In a project with Laurent Ferrara, we have been examining the properties of financial indicators as predictors of (NBER defined) recessions. In addition to the term spread, we have considered Financial Conditions Indices (Arrigoni-Bobasu-Venditti, Goldman Sachs), the foreign term spread (a la Ahmed-Chinn) and the BIS debt service ratio (suggested by Borio-Drehmann-Xia). Slides from presentation in June here.
The Recession of 2022H1 – Rec Vehicles, but No Spam
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
Kopitsian (and Other) Recession Indicators
I’m not of the mind that a recession is going to be avoided, despite increasing confidence this will be the outcome. However, it is hard to find indicators the recession is here, even when looking at measures Steve Kopits (of 2022H1 recession fame) has mentioned.
Dispersion in GDP Q3 Tracking [updated]
GDPNow at 5.6% (SAAR), St. Louis Fed “news” nowcast, at -0.25%. Goldman Sachs and BofA at 3.1%…
World Trade Volume Stalls
The Dutch CBP tallies world trade volumes. Here’s the total world trade series, compared to total industrial production (production weighted), since 2000.
Term Spread Watch – Is This Time Different?
A reporter for Marketplace (hear piece at 10 minutes in) asked me today whether this time was different, especially in light of all the positive coincident indicators (Q3 GDPNow has been at 5.6% for a couple weeks; Fed staff has upgraded q4/q4 growth, Goldman Sachs pegs recession probability at 15%). I was (I hope properly) circumspect.
Monthly GDP and Coincident Index
The Brave-Butters-Kelley monthly GDP for June is out. Here’re growth rates of this series compared against the SPGMI (formerly IHS/Markit) monthly GDP, and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, which should track GDP.