[Updated to include December data] Late to the commentary, here’s a picture of the jobs-workers gap for November, based on JOLTS data:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
ADP Release, and the Flat Employment Growth in Q2 Thesis
The relatively volatile household survey employment series and the Philadelphia Fed’s estimated preliminary benchmark adjusted series suggest flat employment in Q2 (although NOT in H1); see graphs in this post. The ADP release on private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment today (surprising on the upside 235K vs 150K consensus) suggests otherwise, when taking into account the relatively small change in government employment over the relevant period.
Coincident Indicators of Recession: VMT, Heavy Truck Sales, Sahm Rule
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions. Wonder no more. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).
Business Cycle Indicators at 2023’s Beginning
Monthly GDP for November is out. Q4 tracking is for q/q growth 2.1%-3.9% (SAAR).
Lumber Prices and Lumber Futures
Lumber prices did drop like a rock in Fall 2021 (which JohnH seems to deny); then back up. Then back down.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations, January 2023
Down slightly in November.
A Holistic but Quantitative Look at Economic Indicators (with Attention to 2022H1)
A reader observes:
How Many Ways Can One Be Wrong on Employment: Steven Kopits Edition
In response to my summary for 2022 and argument that it was unlikely that 2022H1 would be called a recession, Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
So, for H1:
3. Civilian employment was flat to down
Well, it pays to look at actual data before pontificating.
Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity
Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2021: Cleaning Up What Trump Wrought”. This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to erase stupidity.
Weekly Macro Indicators, through 12/24
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 12/24, released today.