Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

ADP Release, and the Flat Employment Growth in Q2 Thesis

The relatively volatile household survey employment series and the Philadelphia Fed’s estimated preliminary benchmark adjusted series suggest flat employment in Q2 (although NOT in H1); see graphs in this post. The ADP release on private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment today (surprising on the upside 235K vs 150K consensus) suggests otherwise, when taking into account the relatively small change in government employment over the relevant period.

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