Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1948-2023

It’s with great sadness that I pass on news of the passing of Barkley Rosser, Jr., a regular commenter on this weblog (under his own name!). He was among many things an intellect of extremely wide-ranging interests, from bubbles in exchange rates to the dynamics of transition economies, nonlinear dynamics and catastrophe theory to ecological economics.

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A Quick and Dirty Assessment: How Far Off Is the Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payroll Employment Series?

In the debate over whether the establishment survey nonfarm payroll employment series is seriously overestimating recent (particularly Q2) employment, a reader querulously asks “So you’re saying the Philly Fed screwed up its analysis and we should ignore its work? That’s your view?”. Short answer to first question: No. Short answer to the second question: see below.

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Data Paranoia Watch: “I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election”

That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g.,  Senator BarrasoJack Welchformer Rep. Allan WestZerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do a very good job, or (2) it’s a conspiracy so vast that it encompasses not only the other offices of the BLS, but also to ADP.

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Wells Fargo: “Nonfarm Payrolls: Too Good to Be True?”

From House and Pugliese at WF today:

  • The buoyancy of nonfarm payroll growth has seemed at odds with other signs that the jobs market is beginning to sour. …
  • Yet the jobs market is hardly falling apart. A holistic look at the data suggests that directionally the labor market is weakening, but at a measured pace and from a remarkably strong starting point. Not only do signals of demand remain strong on an absolute basis, but job switching remains elevated and the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low at 3.7%.

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