Bluntly put, term spreads moved toward inversion, and inflation expectations adjusted for premia increased. VIX has been elevated since February 2022, and GeoPolitical Risk rose in the period right after the invasion. Growth, which had been accelerating according to weekly indicators, then decelerated. In other words, “Thanks, Putin”.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Are Google data really useful for macroeconomic nowcasting?”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
CBO Economic Outlook: GDP, Treasury Yields, and Recession Indicators
The CBO released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-33 yesterday. The projection, based on data available as of January 6, shows a shallow decline in GDP in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/11: Up, Up and Away, or Slow Deceleration?
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/11/2023 were released today.
January 2023 PPI
The core figure exceeds consensus (y/y 5.4% vs. 4.9% Bloomberg).
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January 2023
Industrial production at consensus, while manufacturing production and retail sales above. For conjunctural analysis, industrial production is what NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee pays more attention to.
Was Q2 Employment Growth a Lot Slower than CES Estimate?
Maybe. From Englander/Hewin at Standard Charter (gated):
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
I’m reminded of that statement (perhaps apocryphal) when I think of Senator Johnson’s views on Social Security. From WPR:
January Inflation
Year-on-year headline and core inflation both down, but both slightly above consensus (with headline at 6.4% vs. 6.2% Bloomberg consensus). (Month-on-month both at consensus, given rounding). Other measures provide ambiguous signals.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook and the Impact of Recent Policies
Last Thursday, I talked on WPR’s Central Time about the national economy and Wisconsin’s outlook given President Biden’s policies. I noted that the macro outlook had improved substantially since last December, as the economy proved more resilient than expected, and inflation decelerated more than anticipated. That was true nationally, as well as locally.