For those who don’t want to use a simple two-consecutive-quarter rule (which would declare the 2001 recession a non-recession).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022
At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.
GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Growth in Q4
We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.
Deceleration (through 12/3)!
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under
Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:
Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review
Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:
GDP Prospects
Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:
Term Spreads around the World, as of December 6, 2022
Here is a snapshot of four key term spreads spreads through November (an examination prompted by a Deutsche Bank missive title “The Looming Recession” which dropped into my inbox today).
Real Wages during and Post-Pandemic
While recent accounts have focused on the erosion of real wages with high inflation, what is true is that average real wages in the private sector, and amongs the lowest paid segment, leisure and hospitality workers, has risen since 2020M02.