Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Phill Swagel to Head CBO
That’s the news, according to Roll Call:
Senate and House budget leaders have chosen Phillip L. Swagel, a University of Maryland economist and former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration, as the next director of the Congressional Budget Office, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions.
A Modest Proposal: “Victory Tofu”
America needs all-tofu school lunches, subsidized tofu pizza, a Tofutti ice-cream substitute campaign… and more. I figure 205.4 pounds of tofu per American should do the trick. The situation facing American soybean farmers is dire, as shown below.
Inversion! Close-of-Trading 5/13/2019
According to constant maturity rates reported by US Treasury, the 10 year-3 month yield curve was inverted as of today’s close (-0.01%). The 10 year-2 year spread is -0.22%, and the 5 year-3 month spread favored by Cam Harvey is -0.23%.
For CoRev: Waiting for Soybeans to Break 800
Winning!
Home Before the Leaves Fall – The US in Trade War
Here is the state of play for US tariffs. We’re a developing country!
As Mr. Trump’s trade war lumbers on, with American consumers bearing the bulk of the burden thus far, it’s useful to review the facts regarding the war. Here are the EconoFact articles on trade policy.
“White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg:
Shelton, who’s served as an informal adviser to Trump, holds a Ph.D. in business administration with an emphasis on finance and international economics from the University of Utah.
Caligula Trump Asks Who Will Rid Me of These Troublesome Economists
I have been remiss in not bringing people’s attention to this purge. From Politico:
Economists in the Agriculture Department’s research branch say the Trump administration is retaliating against them for publishing reports that shed negative light on White House policies, spurring an exodus that included six of them quitting the department on a single day in late April.
If you do not see a pattern in the bullying of Census, the extreme nontransparency of rules at BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security), and the attempt at Board-stuffing at the Fed, then you are blind.
A Re-Run: “Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices”
“Re-run” is an archaic phrase from my generation. It means to replay a previously recorded and broadcast television show. Here, this “rerun” seems appropos. I think that the cost to Xi of backing down is even greater given Trump’s tariff threat came close to the day of the 100th Anniversary of the May 4th Movement — a sensitive occasion for the CCP. From an August 2018 post.
Notable differences. US GDP fundamentals less robust than in August. Chinese growth fundamentals (in the short run) are stronger. Remember this despite the fact that that Liu He is joining the negotiating team coming to Washington, D.C.
Guest Contribution: “Evaluating Central Banks’ Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Eric Sims and Jing Cynthia Wu (both from the University of Notre Dame), based on their paper of the same title.