Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Steve Hanke Says the Recession Cometh
See here.
with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.
Manufacturing’s Progress
Output, employment and value added:
Thinking about Trade War II
A flurry of investment bank newsletters (Wells Fargo, GS) impels me to look at what happened to the aggregate trade balance in the wake of Trump’s tariff hikes:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment along with Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, and Sahm Rule
Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:
March Employment Indicators for Nonfarm Payroll
The employment surprise in context.
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
Coincident index for February out today.
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.