From FleetTracker:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Trends in German Trade on the Eve of World War I
One shouldn’t just say increasing (or decreasing) trade between potential adversaries predicts something.
Food Inflation Moderates
But convergence in the East North Central portion of the Midwest is slower. Follow up to this post.
What Is Old Is New Again: Channeling Wright Patman
From Bloomberg:
But Jack Manley at JPMorgan Chase argues that the Fed’s current rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% are actually inflationary at this point, and that prices won’t stabilize more until the the central bank starts cutting.
“A lot of what’s going on with inflation today can be linked very closely with the level of interest rates,” Manley said. “You slice and dice inflation and whether you’re looking at the headline number, whether you’re looking at the core number, you’re removing the goods equation — so much of it has to do with the rate environment.”
Apparently, Dr. Stephanie Kelton is an adherent of this view.
Instantaneous CPI, PCE deflator, and PPI Inflation in March
Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
“Central Banking in a Time of Crisis: An International and Interdisciplinary Perspective”
Wisconsin International Law Journal conference tomorrow (Friday) at the UW Memorial Union.
Yao Yang at UW Madison: China’s Slowdown – Structural or Cyclical
Presentation at UW Madison (sponsored by CEAS), on Friday, April 12th.
Inflation Surprise!
Here’s a graphic depiction of the extent of the surprise, in levels, relative to Bloomberg Consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Studies in Sophistry: Rich States, Poor States 17
Today, ALEC released the latest assessment of state-by-state economic outlook and economic performance, authored by Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams.
100 Years of Recession Prediction Using the Term Spread
It doesn’t always work.