Trump: $4 ($5.6) trillion increase in cumulative deficit, minus tariff revenue increase. Harris: $1.7 trillion. On the tariff impact, you have to ask: “do you feel lucky?”
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
EJ Antoni on the Recession
of 2022H1, in light of his declaration of recession now. From August 1, 2022, from Heritage Explains episode “Biden’s Recession”:
EJ Antoni: “manufacturing is in recession”
From X, on Thursday:
Cliff Winston: “The Microeconomics of Donald Trump”
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Wesley Clair Mitchell and Business Cycle Measurement
From NBER President & CEO James Poterba, on 8/5/2024:
“Economists for Trump”
In 2020, list here.
“Non-Essential Business Cycles” and Implications for the Imminent Recession Call
From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions):
Hovde on Impending Mass Layoffs, Disinflation vs. Deflation, and “Illegals” (His Word, Not Mine)
See on WisconsinEye.
Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024
Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024: