EV’s flat. Hybrids up. From Kevin Drum.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Atavistic Component of Republican Economic Sentiment as Overall Sentiment Jumps
One of the mysteries of recent times has been the divergence between conditions (say, as measured by the Misery Index) and measured consumer sentiment. Figure 1 shows the U.Michigan sentiment index (FRED variable UMCSENT) vs. the sum of inflation and unemployment rates over the 2016-24M01 period. The jump in UMCSENT of 9 was about 2 standard deviations (for the 2016-23 period), on top of the nearly two deviation jump in December, and goes some way to redressing the gap.
The Wisconsin Economic Situation
WMC has a survey of 180 member firms out indicating only 22% of respondents believed that the Wisconsin economy is strong.
“Soft Landing, Hard Landing, or Financial Crisis?”
That’s the title of a panel discussion at AEI with With Steven B. Kamin moderating, and Jason Furman, Julia Coronado, Nathan Sheets and Desmond Lachman participating.
Four Forecasts and Two Nowcasts
Nowcasts are outstripping forecasts. For now.
GDP Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside (Q4 mean growth rose from 0.9% to 1.7% q/q AR since October), but forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 1.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January
Industrial production and manufacturing production both beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow (latter up today to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10).
China Growth Hits Consensus
Russia: Policy Rate Up, Oil Prices Down
Growth prospects in short term are being revised up. But how long can that persist when policy rates rise, oil prices stay low?
Real Wages, Through December (updated)
Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]