This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.
In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based data released by the BLS adds yet more confirmation of a decrease in employment (h/t GeoffT). Monday’s newly released Philadelphia Fed coincident indices reflect those labor market trends.
Wisconsin released Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data yesterday (as well as nonfarm payroll employment (NFP)) [1] [2]. We can use these data to update the estimate of nonfarm payroll employment (which is important given concerns about the accuracy of the establishment survey based series). Doing so worsens the employment performance through 2014.
Wisconsin employment in May. (Update 6/23 to include growth decomposition)
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Some individuals have questioned the accuracy of the Philadelphia Fed coincident indices as measures of economic activity. Recently released Gross State Product (GSP) data confirms the pattern previously identified: Wisconsin lags the Nation, and its neighbor Minnesota. Thank goodness for Kansas to make Wisconsin look good!
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.
Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, on what he sees as the destruction of a great research university.
The crown jewel of the Wisconsin university system is the University of Wisconsin at Madison. It is one of the top research universities in the country and the world. With this move [ to strip tenure from professors], you will basically kiss that jewel goodbye. To me this is the more salient reality than whether you think academic tenure is a good thing or not in itself.
If this happens, over time, the professors who can will leave. And as the top flight scholars and researchers depart, so will the reputation of the institution. So will graduate students who want to study with them, the best undergrads, money that flows to prestigious scholarship. Don’t get me wrong. Not in a day or a year or even several years. But it will. If you don’t get this, you don’t understand the economy and incentive structure of university life.
In other news, Author of proposal to abolish Legislative Audit Bureau says it’s not a response to scathing WEDC audits. The Legislative Audit Bureau is the Wisconsin equivalent of the Federal government’s Government Accountability Office (GAO).
From NOAA:
“Adding in the last two years of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion of a hiatus in recent global warming trends,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., Director, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been largely the result of limitations in past datasets, and that the rate of warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century.”