Integration, cointegration and the evaluation of time series data for public policy analysis. As my first economics teacher said, “ya gotta be careful”.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Spillovers, the End of Original Sin, and More
Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by SCU, UCSC, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).
Wisconsin Employment: 108.6K below Trend Required to Hit Walker’s 250K Target
The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with the Governor’s target (recommitted to a mere year ago) of 250 thousands net new jobs.
“Exchange rates, monetery policy, and financial policy”
In emerging and developing countries. That’s the title of a conference, organized by Gunther Schnabl (Leipzig) and Ansgar Belke (Duisberg-Essen), I’m attending in Leipzig.
link
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Governor Walker Answering a Question Regarding the Wisconsin Living Wage
Or, not answering, as the case may be.
Here is the video; see the question asked about 16 minutes in.
Russia under Pressure: “Russia Moves Ruble Band in Biggest Intervention Since March”
That’s the title to today’s article in Reuters. I’ve been surprised that the Russian economy has taken as much a hit as it has, partly in response to sanction and spillover effects onto confidence from those sanctions. I think the skeptics of the efficacy of sanctions for hitting the Russian economy will have to re-assess.
Did States that Raised the Minimum Wage Have Faster or Slower Employment Growth?
The answer is faster…so contra the arguments of the Wisconsin Restaurant Association, and Wisconsin Manufacturers Association, it seems unlikely that there are large negative employment impacts from minimum wage increases. Oh, also contra Sabia for the Employment Policies Institute (who has still not responded to my repeated requests for his data, after six months).
Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development Determines $7.25/hour Is a Living Wage
From Jason Stein in today’s Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
The state law requires that Wisconsin’s minimum wage “shall not be less than a living wage.” …
A living wage is defined under the law as “reasonable comfort, reasonable physical well-being, decency and moral well-being.”
IMF World Economic Outlook Forecasts
Chapters 1 and 2 of the IMF World Economic Outlook were released today.
Update on the UK Recovery
From the The Courier, “Osborne defends austerity measures”:
George Osborne, who has announced plans for a further £3.2 billion squeeze on welfare bill which will hit 10 million of the unemployed and working poor, warned they would be among the ones who would “suffer the most” if there was another crisis.