The CBO has just released estimates of the cyclically adjusted budget balance (or, specifically, the budget balance without automatic stabilizers). The cyclically adjusted budget balance is a better measure of the fiscal stance. The evolution of this series is interesting.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Stevenson and Wolfers: “Is Paul Ryan an Inflation Nutter?”
Additional evidence addressing the question asked by Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers.
Assessing the Economics of the Ryan Plan
The new House budget proposal has just been released. [0] In the section discussing economic effects, I read the following:
Revisions and Conditioning, Again
An interesting new working paper, “Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries,” by Manik Shrestha and Marco Marini, documents the fact that at the end of 2008, statistics understated the true extent of U.S. GDP decline.
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: U.S. recession began around the middle of last year
I’m dubious, but I will not “pull a Lazear”. Or a Don Luskin for that matter.
Still in Search of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction
The revisions in Euro zone and UK GDP figures have confirmed the lackluster performance in economies where rapid fiscal consolidation has been implemented. In the Euro zone, estimated growth has now been negative for five quarters. And in the UK, revised figures indicate negative growth for 2012Q4. In contrast, the US has exhibited continued, albeit modest, growth.
Eliminating Energy-Related Tax Expenditures
With domestic oil production soaring, and petroleum and coal sector profits rising at a rapid clip, now seems the right time to cut back on tax expenditures related to oil extraction and processing.
What If People Lived Forever . . .
In a New Keynesian DSGE (or a RBC)
Approximate Geographic Impact of the Sequester
From Wells Fargo (using Pew Center data), a graphic depicting exposure to Federal spending, and hence sensitivity to the sequester.
Yen Depreciation and the Scope for Expenditure Switching
With Haruhiko Kuroda ascending to head the Bank of Japan [1], it is likely that monetary policy will remain fairly expansionary. Even without direct intervention in foreign exchange markets, the yen will likely continue to weaken as expectations of inflation rise. What is the likely impact of trade flows?