From Treasury’s assessment of the prospects for the Russian economy.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Sentiment by Survey and by Text Analysis
The Michigan survey of consumer sentiment has diverged its correlation with unemployment and inflation, as has (to a lesser degree) the Conference Board survey of confidence. Interestingly, they’ve both diverged from sentiment as measured by text analysis.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-December
Industrial production under consensus (+0.2% [corrected 12/16] m/m vs +0.3% Bloomberg consensus). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
“Should Argentina Dollarize?”
An AEI and OMFIF discussion on Wednesday with Steve Kamin and Mark Sobel.
“the employment cost index: wages and salaries shows a decline since 4Q19”
I do not understand how one can write this sentence in 2023, and still be living on this planet. I retrieved data from FRED (ECIWAG), version posted on October 16, 2023. I plot:
Senator Théoden* on Funding Ukraine
From The Hill:
“The only way this war ends is in a negotiated settlement. Every day that goes by while this war continues, more Ukrainians die, citizens and soldiers, more Russian conscripts die. I take no joy in that. More of Ukraine gets destroyed,” [Senator Ron] Johnson said. “So, the sooner that they reach a negotiated settlement, the better from my standpoint.”
Johnson said he thinks Russia will not lose the war against its neighbor to the southeast. The Wisconsin senator said he doesn’t “like that reality, but it’s true.”
In essence, because the Russian forces are so strong and effective (despite evidence accumulated over the past year and a half to the contrary), then we had best give up, and negotiate now, the sooner the better.
In this Foxnews clip from yesterday, Senator Johnson also talks about how a negotiated surrender would be one favorable to the Ukrainians because Putin would be afraid of a protracted guerrilla war.
More generally, Mr. Johnson wants more for border security in any agreement for funding Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
* Théoden Reference is to reign during period of Grima’s tenure as security adviser.
News and the Market-Implied Fed Funds Path
Ten year Treasury yield fell with the FOMC announcement, as CME contracts indicated a lower trajectory:
Judy Shelton: “Not that there’s anything wrong…”
From NY Sun (4 Dec) via the Independent Institute:
Real Wages
November CPI: Headline, Core, Supercore, Trimmed, Median, and Instantaneous
Instantaneous below y/y: