and wages in food processing:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War
Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:
Year-on-Year PCE Price Inflation and Some Trend Measures
Instantaneous, instantaneous core, and trimmed mean m/m.
A Decomposition of Per Unit Price Inflation in Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, through 2023Q3
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-November
On the last day of the month, we see m/m personal income and consumption coming out at consensus. Here’s the picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (of which personal income ex transfers and employment are key), along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
Sentiment down 46%, Confidence down 25% Relative to Pandemic Eve
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.
Investment in Manufacturing Structures in Q3
Growth continues.
Q3 Output, 2nd release
GDP up, but GDO growing slower than GDP.
Soft Landing?
I’ve wondered about what a “soft landing” entails, and whether we are are headed toward one (see discussion of diverging forecasts, in current issue of the Economist) This is despite findings that, based on historical correlations, just about any term spread based regression will predict a recession by around mid-2024.
World Coal Consumption Trends – American Sources
Reader CoRev asserts IEA forecasts are biased. Here are forecasts from US DoE Energy Information Administration.