Latest employment, coincident indices:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-April
Industrial production continues to rise, while February monthly GDP erased January’s decline.
US-China Nominal GDP, Per capita GDP in PPP Terms
From IMF WEO:
Higher for Longer, Illustrated
From Rashad Ahmed today:
Best Proposed Amendment *Ever*
Filed today by Rep. Moskowitz:
Different Measures of Consumer Prices
Since 2021M01, the CPI has risen 17.3% (log terms). By comparison, chained CPI and HICP have risen by approximately 16.5%. The PCE deflator has risen only 14.4% by March 2024 – but these are prices of goods and services produced, not of prices faced by consumers.
NIIP and Primary Income: Dark Matter +20 vs. Exorbitant Privilege +40
Here’s a graph that I constructed, in preparing to teach the open economy component of Macro Policy:
US-China GDP Growth since 1981
Reader Bruce Hall observes:
China’s growth rate is projected to be about twice that of the US.
Kim Ruhl: “U.S. China Trade: From the Cold War to the Trade War”
Economics Dept and CROWE presents:
Polls, Sentiment, Prediction Markets
It’s of some interest to see how polls and prediction markets are viewing the presidential race, and how this links with economic sentiment.